Greywolf
Earlier Postings 5/12 - 31/12 2007/2008
Earlier Postings 27/3 - 5/12 2007/2007
Earlier Postings 3/10 - 22/3 2006/2007
Earlier Postings 27/6 - 30/9 2006
Earlier Postings 8/2 - 27/6 2006
Earlier Postings 2/8 - 1/2 2005/2006
Earlier Postings 17/3 - 20/7 2005
Greywolf Mobile - www.greywolf.se/mobile.html - Text Version
28/7 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 7.3 (API + 3.0 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.1 (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.9 (API + 0.4 mmbls)
Crude Import 11.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd
Refineries 90.6%
Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.0 mmbls
As expected, again...
27/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 3.0 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 0.4 mmbls)
No hurricanes, no disruption to Imports looks again like the DOE numbers could show a build across the board..
21/7 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 0.4 (API - 0.24 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.1 (API - 0.4 mmbls)
Distillates + 3.9 (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 1.2 mmbopd
Refiners 91.5%
Demand 19.2 mmbopd + 3.0% y-o-y
So as expected a build across the board.. Demand looks healthy yet this compared to 2009 which was not a good year.
20/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 0.24 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 0.4 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.0 mmbls)
This could very well translate into a build across the board in the DOE stats. The weekly US stats are one thing yet
more and more global macroeconomic indicators are taking hold of the sentiment and fundamentals in the contracts trade..
These indicators are all pointing to a slowdown in economic activity much due to the EU mess.. Brake up the political
madness that is the EU/EURO now and things might just get going, a little faster... Yet thatīs another posting.
US retail Gasoline demand rose by 1.3% from last month and just a little more from the same time 2009, which is not
saying much as the US was in deep financial woe... The contracts are more apt to head to $60 than $80.
16/7 GMT 02.37 Sweden - Stocks
Strong Buys are given for,
Black Pearl Exploration
Cellpoint Connect
Enquest
Guideline
Lundin Petroleum
16/7 GMT 02.25 BP - BP:NYSE
The stock is doing rather well.. Excuse the pun! The well seemīs to be capped, at last. The cost to BP is yet to be
disclosed but it should not be beyond the realms of the companyīs financial capabilities.
14/7 GMT 22.30 China - Power Output
As I have pointed to many times China is not going Gangbusters! In fact China has been slowing down since the beginning
of the year. Power Output in June was only up by 15% year-on-year at 352 billion kilowatt hours..
This is the lowest monthly increase since Sep/Oct 2009. Yet the numbers should be seen in the light of the fact that
in April power generation came in at 331.6 billion kilowatt hours.. Power output reached 340.47 billion kilowatt hours
in May, up 18.9% year on year and 2.7% compared with April. In March the total was 336.95 billion kilowatt hours...
13/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 1.7 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.73 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 3.2 mmbls)
7/7 GMT 00.01 BP - BP:NYSE
Progress seems to be good on the New Cap.. The stock should correspond accordingly.
9/7 GMT 00.07 USA - Court Allows Offshore Drilling Until Final Decison on Ban
A US appeals court Thursday rejected the Obama administration's request to keep a moratorium on deepwater oil drilling
in place while the court decides on the legality of the temporary ban. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit,
based in New Orleans, ruled about an hour after hearing arguments over the administration's request to put on hold a
lower court ruling that lifted the six-month moratorium. It also designated August 30 for a hearing on the merits of a
suspension of deepwater drilling.
This does not mean that drilling will start again as the legal uncertainties are too many, so itīs off to the
US Supreme Court sometime in the distant future...
8/7 GMT 11.35 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The company getīs a C- in the Market Communications Dept, shareholders like information.. An Interim Financial Report
dated any day now would be helpful.. The 30/8 is a long way off to wait for a half year report. I think people would
like to see some numbers, today!
Yet I would attribute much of this to the problems the new owners/financiers have had with the members of the old board
who one would have thought would have done their utmost to help rebuild the mess they created, not so. Letīs face
it the old board and management saw the company as a "cash cow" or rather their own ATM machine.. If the cash flow
got low, a new rights issue! Anyway the old board members were kicked out the back door and the work in restructuring
the company has taken up all of managements time, as it should. There are things in the pipeline and good ones at that.
This site does itīs homework before promoting a company or stock and it has done so again this time..
7/7 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 7.3 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 0.1 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 1.0 mmbls)
Hurricane Alex drew down the Crude supplies more than expected..
7/7 GMT 00.41 BP - BP:NYSE
Trading this one...
2/7 GMT 21.26 USA - Closed for the 4th of July
No trades in the US until Tuesday.. So itīs a long weekend. Have a good one!
1/7 GMT 22.56 USA - VIX Index - S&P 500
The S&P crashed through a number of support levels with a low for the day of 1.011... This then ahead of the 4th of July
long weekend, markets are closed Monday. The 1.000 is up for grabs and then we are off to the races. Yet this is the market
saying that things are not as good as everyone thinks. The VIX fell below 33 which is still a Fair Value number.
Then we have Fridayīs Jobs Report!
1/7 GMT 09.44 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The company has re-launched the community site Trig.Com.
More News on the way!!
29/6 GMT 21.42 World - The Markets
Stocks drop across the board on worries about the EU, soon to be no more! The recovery in the US, not a great worry yet.
But the kicker is China and as this site has been saying for a long time China is not all the market hopes for, far from
it... Power Output is 70% of Chinas economy and again this site has pointed to these numbers and warned about the fact that
the cheap producer of goods to the rest of the world is in trouble.. Cases in point below.. Yet go back and look at the
stats reproduced here even further back in history and you will see the trend.
2/6 GMT 00.10 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
The contracts take a hit at the close of trade on worries about data out later during the week and
The China Slow Down factor...
This site has for months been saying that China is not going gangbusters, far from it and this fact is now starting to
take hold at different levels. Chinas Power Output numbers for instance is one huge clue..
19/5 GMT 17.10 China - Power Output
In April power generation came in at 331.6 billion kilowatt hours..
In March the total was 336.95 billion kilowatt hours, now this means power output fell yet the
National Bureau of Statistics calls the difference a climb of 21%.. Well yes if you look at the year-on-year numbers..
Take stats from China for what they are... Yet Industrial production rose 18% in April from a year earlier, increasing
electricity needs from factories in the world's biggest exporter of goods, but the increases are compared to a period
of very low activity due to the financial crisis. Just a reminder..
29/6 GMT 01.23 Global Warming - Sydney
Sydneysiders have shivered through the city's coldest June morning since 1983 after the temperature dropped to
+ 4.7C. In Richmond it was - 4.1C just before 7.00am this morning.
28/6 GMT 20.44 The Third Depression
I can only agree! In this I would point out that this site called the Financial Crisis long before most..
The Third Depression
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of the 20th was an era of nonstop decline
on the contrary, both included periods when the economy grew. But these episodes of improvement were never enough to
undo the damage from the initial slump, and were followed by relapses.
We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than
the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted
by the absence of jobs will nonetheless be immense.
And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world most recently at last weekends deeply
discouraging G-20 meeting governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need
for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending.
In 2008 and 2009, it seemed as if we might have learned from history. Unlike their predecessors, who raised interest rates
in the face of financial crisis, the current leaders of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slashed rates and
moved to support credit markets. Unlike governments of the past, which tried to balance budgets in the face of a plunging
economy, todays governments allowed deficits to rise. And better policies helped the world avoid complete collapse: the recession
brought on by the financial crisis arguably ended last summer.
27/6 GMT 21.54 Iran - Crude Export
Irans oil sales year-on-year to February 2010 fell by 24.3% to $59.55 billion dollars..
Oil sales account for 80% of Irans National Income. Further reductions are expected as the sales to Asia, especially Japan
have fallen heavily during the first half of this year.
22/6 GMT 10.38 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Updated!
I did write,
"I can only reiterate,
"If you are selling this stock at anywhere below a Market Cap of 100.000.000 SEK.. Big Mistake! Real Big Mistake!!""
I would like to revise this statement to read..
"If you are selling this stock at anywhere below a Market Cap of 300.000.000 SEK.. Big Mistake! Real Big Mistake!!"
A bold statement you say! I think not!!
In acquiring Pyro Group for the sum of 2.5 million shares the company has raised itīs turnover by SEK 6.0 million with a
projected post right-off profit of SEK 0.8 million.. Look for more of these types of deals going forward!
16/6 GMT 10.15 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The new website should give you more than a few clues about as to where this company is heading... More to come I venture..
15/6 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.3 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 2.1 mmbls)
US retail Gasoline Demand rose 1.4% versus a week ago but fell 2.2% against the 2009 period.. At the same time
Gasoline Prices fell last week to their lowest level since February..
8/6 GMT 02.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan
OK here we go again... The European Coalition on Oil in Sudan is accusing the company of war crimes.. So here we
go again with IKV Pax Christi and Egbert Wesselink... ECOS has a very dubious agenda in this.. IKV Pax Christi is the catholic
church on a mission... Donors give IKV Pax Christi big checks to save the world... Letīs just say that old Egbert doesnīt
travel in coach on his trips or stay at the local Bed & Breakfast. Christian Aid is big business especially in a country
like the Sudan where you have a Muslim North and a Christian South which has most of the Oil.. Yet still controlled by Karthoum.
The fight has been ongoing for centuries... Go figure the rest!!
4/6 GMT 01.12 British Petroleum - BP:NYSE - Back in Iraq
BP or British Petroleum drilled in the Rumaila oil field in Iraq's oil capital Basra province during the 1950īs and 60īs only
to be thrown out as was everybody else when Iraq nationalised itīs oil industry in the 70īs. Since last November British Petroleum
along with itīs Chinese partner CNPC have been back in Iraqīs major oil field... BP, like many major oil companies has been providing
training for free to Iraq since 2003. Now, with a contract signed to develop the country's largest field, the company has
opened an office within the British consulate on the US base in Basra and is preparing to open a full-fledged work camp at
the Rumaila field itself... BP-CNPC earn $2 on every barrel produced where both have about a 38% share in the field.. Current
production is 1.2 mmbopd..
3/6 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 1.9 (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline - 2.6 (API - 1.0 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.5 (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 1.0 mmbopd
Refineries 87.5%
Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.3 mmbls
Total demand is up by +8.1% y-o-y, yet most of this is in Distillates +17.1% and Jet Fuel +8.1%.
Gasoline demand however is only up by 0.5% y-o-y..
3/6 GMT 14.03 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The current number of share issued are 45.097.331... If you are selling this stock at anywhere below
a Market Cap of 100.000.000 SEK.. Big Mistake! Real Big Mistake!!
3/6 GMT 11.56 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX
2/6 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 1.0 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Crude Import 8.7 mmbopd
Refineries 86.6%
US gasoline demand at the pump surged 3.7% last week to the highest level since August 2007 as drivers filled their tanks for
the Memorial Day weekend. Motorists bought an average 9.71 mmbls of gasoline a day in the week ended May 28. The point being
that last weeks stats should be seen in the Memorial Day context...
2/6 GMT 00.54 Iran - Crude Import - Japan
Japanīs Import of Crude from Iran in 2010 is set to hit a 17 year low.. As this site has pointed out earlier and in April
Japans import of Iranian crude fell by 25% year on year to 296.000 bopd. Sanctions.
2/6 GMT 00.27 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
More direct financing, ie not going to the marketplace.. A chairman who much like the rest of the new investors in the company
put their money into their own capability to turn this one into a real winner! With the OBS-listing a thing of the past the
management can now continue with the hard work of again turning this one into something completely different.. In this it should
be noted that the guys now running the company are highly competent, successful businessmen who are all certified Workaholics..
Itīs time to Rock and Roll!
2/6 GMT 00.16 British Petroleum - BP:NYSE
Having lost 30% of itīs market value my earlier assessment was a bit premature yet once the company stops the leak and we start
getting an idea of the cost to clear this mess up the stock is attractive. The company has cash-flow of $28 billion with $7 billion
in cash current debt to asset ratio is in the 20% region so even with an increase here it is still low, not for the industry but
for the company as such.
2/6 GMT 00.10 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
The contracts take a hit at the close of trade on worries about data out later during the week and The China Slow Down factor...
This site has for months been saying that China is not going gangbusters, far from it and this fact is now starting to
take hold at different levels. Chinas Power Output numbers for instance is one huge clue..
1/6 GMT 10.35 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
According to the information today from Cellpoint Connect AB the trading with the shares (CPNT) will be transfered to
the AktieTorget ordinary Stocklist (from the Observation List) from June 2, 2010. The shares have been traded on the
Observation List since September 11, 2009.
31/5 GMT 02.22 Australia - NSW - Surfing
Outstanding waves on the South Coast during the weekend...
31/5 GMT 01.39 Japan - Factory Output
Japan's industrial output rose +1.3% in April from the previous month. The increase represents growth for the second consecutive
month, yet it was lower than average market expectations for an increase of +2.5%. Shipments gained +1.6% from March.
Inventory stockpiles rose +0.3%. The April figure showed an increase of +25.9% year on year.
31/5 GMT 01.20 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - SPC Technology
Pretty much on track...
29/5 GMT 00.19 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
Be not disconsolate, good things will come to pass in due time..
28/5 GMT 00.09 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
NOAA forecastīs an intense Atlantic Hurricane Season this year!... Enough said I guess. It drove the contracts on Thursday
and will as usual between June and November be the 20 ton gorilla lurking about.
26/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 2.4 (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.2 (API - 3.2 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.3 (API + 1.5 mmbls)
Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.9 mmbls!
Refiners 87.8%
Total Petroleum Demand has picked up by + 6.9% over last year. Yet storage of Crude and Products are higher than last
year and the average..
26/5 GMT 09.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno
Drilling permit for wellbore 16/1-14 in production licence 338
26.05.2010
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) has granted Lundin Norway AS a drilling permit for wellbore 16/1-14, cf.
Section 8 of the Resource Management Regulations.
Wellbore 16/1-14 will be drilled from the Transocean Winner drilling facility at position 58° 53 09.32 North and
1° 12 11.49 East following completion of the drilling of wildcat well 16/2-6 for Lundin Norway AS (Lundin) in
production licence 501.
The drilling program for wellbore 16/1-14 relates to the drilling of a wildcat well in production licence 338.
Lundin is the operator with a 50 per cent ownership interest. The other licensees are RWE Dea Norge AS (20 per cent)
and Wintershall Norge ASA (30 per cent). The area in this licence consists of central to southeastern parts of block 16/1.
The well was drilled 4 kilometres south of 16/1-9 (Draupne) and about 25 kilometres east of 15/3-1 S Gudrun in the
central part of the North Sea.
Production licence 338 was awarded on 17 December 2004 (APA 2004). This is the fifth well to be drilled in the licence.
25/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 3.2 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.5 mmbls)
25/5 GMT 14.53 Aktietorget - Moves to Burgundy
As of today all stocks on Aktietorget are also going to be listed on Burgundy.
25/5 GMT 13.38 Germany - The Market - Ban on All Naked Short Selling
The German Finance Ministry is considering a total ban on all Naked Short Selling in Germany. This would include bonds from
the Eurozone that are traded in Germany, CDS contracts and certain Derivatives.
I hear voices from the 1920īs.... Also you have to question how bad are really things in Germany?? As yet undisclosed...
25/5 GMT 02.05 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Itīs not easy getting the absolute details correct as to how the contracts will move on a single day yet you can pretty
much use a standard form..
"Interesting day.. Yet not surprising. WTI closed at $77.11, Brent $79.50 given on the dollar effect but also on
the simple fact.. There are huge amounts of oil in storage across the globe and demand is lackluster...
Add to this the slow but steady desintegration of the EU".. This the written on the 6/5..
The same applies. The world is well supplied with Oil, the EU will sooner or later desintegrate.
And we are heading for a double-dip.. The fundamentals for Oil at the moment ex risk ie North Korea, Iran.. Says the WTI
contract is healthy at $65 to $70. However $55 to $65 could really start moving lackluster economies back on to the road to
recovery much faster...
24/5 GMT 21.09 USA - The Market - VIX Index
So since the April 20 move down the S&P has fallen just over -12%, with more to come.. The 1.000 level should be in trouble
and would see this correction come in at -20% at least. Fair Value for the VIX just now is about 33.
20/5 GMT 11.43 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Yet another Rights Issue
And the "Ponzi Scheme" just rolls on...
19/5 GMT 17.10 China - Power Output
In April power generation came in at 331.6 billion kilowatt hours..
In March the total was 336.95 billion kilowatt hours, now this means power output fell yet the National Bureau of Statistics
calls the difference a climb of 21%.. Well yes if you look at the year-on-year numbers.. Take stats from China for what
they are... Yet Industrial production rose 18% in April from a year earlier, increasing electricity needs from factories
in the world's biggest exporter of goods, but the increases are compared to a period of very low activity due to the
financial crisis. Just a reminder..
19/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 0.2 (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.3 (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.0 (API - 0.3 mmbls)
Refineries 87.9%
Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Supplies + 1.2 mmbls
Fairly neutral report..
18/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 0.3 mmbls)
Refineries 85.9% + 1.0%
Crude Import 11.0 mmbopd
17/5 GMT 07.29 EnQuest PLC - ENQ:SAX - ENQ:LSE Report
Current Net Production 16.340 bopd. New production facilities in Don Southwest, Broom and Thistle are set to
come online during Q3-Q4, thus meeting the target production of 18.000 bopd be the end of 2010.
15/5 GMT 02.22 Australia - The Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels
Sea Eagles vs Eels
7.00 PM 17/5
Brookvale Oval
The Eagles will pravail.. In another few games itīs Russell Croweīs "Bunnies" that are going to again, Taste Defeat..
14/5 GMT 01.47 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - Oil Discovery
Up by + 429.41% since 7/5... Great week for the Falklands!
14/5 GMT 01.23 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Only $0.14 from a year high.. Really only of interest to the trader, everyone else well you know my thoughtīs on
this one. Let it Ride.
14/5 GMT 01.16 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Observation Listing
As Aktietorget follow the same rules that apply to NASDAQOMX regarding trade over the exchanges this site belives that
based on these criteria a de-listing from the OBS-list should happen within days..
With the AGM and the Q1 report clearly pointing out that Cellpoint today is a totally different entity from the one that
was more or less saved from bankrupty by the new financiers and a new board. A de-listing should for all intents and
purposes be "very" much imminent.
11/5 GMT 22.36 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX - Q1 Report
The salient points..
* Oil and gas production averaged 6,685 boe/day, a 21% increase over Q1 2009;
* Crude oil prices continued to strengthen, averaging WTI US$78.71 per barrel; heavy oil differentials remained
tight at 10%; partially offset by a stronger Canadian dollar;
* Revenues increased 131% to $36.4 million compared to Q1 in 2009; Cash flow from operations was $15 million,
compared with negative $1.8 million in Q1 2009;
* Acquired the remaining 20% working interest in the Blackrod SAGD project; we now own 100% of this property;
* Drilled 8 development wells at Onion Lake, 60 additional wells planned for the remainder of the year;
* Subsequent to March 31, strengthened the balance sheet with an equity offering of 10.3 million common
shares for net proceeds of $28.8 million.
11/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 0.4 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 0.9 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 0.1 mmbls)
Refineries 84.9% - 2.5%
Crude Import 8.4 mmbopd - 1.4 mmbopd
11/5 GMT 20.23 PA Resources - PAR:SAX
Right now this company is Simply one Big Tax Write-Off..
11/5 GMT 20.05 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Q1 Report
Two things.. apart from the plain numbers which were for the first time in the companyīs history actually worth
publishing. An Obs-delisting, Now! Two things.. The increased server capacity at the new company office site which by
the way is far more economical than office space on "Lidingö"... The second Kincaid!
A further comment will be posted later.. Stay tuned!
11/5 GMT 20.01 Lost Postings
A number of postings on the site have been lost. This due to technical reasons. Now Restored.
9/5 GMT 02.01 The Greywolf Site - 18.067.000 Unique Visitors
For some obscure reason 18 million visitors from 127 countries find this site a place of interest...
8/5 GMT 22.43 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - Oil Discovery
Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration
company, is pleased to announce that well 14/10-2 on the Sea Lion prospect has
reached a depth of 2,744 metres. Initial data collected indicate that this well
is an oil discovery, which would be the first in the North Falkland Basin.
The Company has run a suite of wireline logs and logging data collected thus far
indicate that the well has encountered a 150 metre gross interval of sand and
shales. The data show that the well has 53 metres of net pay distributed in
multiple pay zones, the thickest of which has a net pay of 25 metres. These pay
zones have an average porosity of 19%.
Rockhopper now intends to collect additional logging information prior to making
a decision whether to plug and abandon the well, or to suspend the well for
future testing. The Company is also considering whether to drill an appraisal
well on Sea Lion later during the current drilling campaign. Further information
will be distributed in due course.
Salient facts about 14/10-2 Sea Lion,
- 53 metres of net pay in multiple zones.
- Thickest sand is also confirmed at approximately 25m net pay.
- Average porosity is 19%, with peaks of 28%.
- Logs show excellent permeability.
In the 25 metre pay zone, permeability ranges between 200 Milidarcy and 500 Milidarcy, with peaks at over 1 Darcy.
- No oil/water contact has been encountered.
- The company will now proceed with additional log analysis and collect fluid samples.
By the way nice trade....
8/5 GMT 12.18 The EU - Greece
Since when is the future of the Greek economy decided be the German Parliment? There is something inherently wrong here....
8/5 GMT 11.30 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Yet another Rights Issue
Another Rights Issue with the sole purpose of paying back old loans...
This company has gone from just being Silly to now being totally Ridiculous.. If you are prone to invest in it well then...
PA Resources is Benchmark Oil & Gas (Another Swedish oil company Scam), on Steroids..
Still people do happily invest in both companies... It is true there really is at least one fool born every day.
If you are offended by my point of view I could not care less!
The End.
6/5 GMT 22.39 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Interesting day.. Yet not surprising. WTI closed at $77.11, Brent $79.50 given on the dollar effect but also on
the simple fact.. There are huge amounts of oil in storage across the globe and demand is lackluster...
Add to this the slow but steady desintegration of the EU..
6/5 GMT 08.48 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Production?
Have we caught the company in a lie? Azurite is said by the company to have had a daily production of 4.450 bopd during
Q1. Yet Murphy Oil, the operator reports their 55% of the production in Q1 came in at 3.714 bopd....
So how can PA Resources with a 35% share see a larger production than the operator? More problems with gross and net...
5/5 GMT 00.20 The EU - A Pigs Breakfast
I wrote,
23/2 GMT 00.43 The EU - A Pigs Breakfast..
I give the EU about 2 to 5 years before it is broken up and the lessons of history are again sadly relearned..
I now doubt it will even take 2 years...
5/5 GMT 22.54 USA - VIX Index
Itīs going to be interesting going forward.. Volatile markets make for good trading!
5/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 2.8 (API + 3.0 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.2 (API + 1.8 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.6 (API + 1.3 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.8 mmbls
Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd
Refineries 89.6%
Total Demand + 2.0% yoy
5/5 GMT 02.31 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX
The stock is holding itīs position around AUD$0.35 despite the market at large. This one is worth a good hard look,
as I have pointed to earlier... Some things do take time.
4/5 GMT 22.34 Iran - Crude Import - Japan
Japanīs Import of Crude from Iran in 2010 is set to hit a 17 year low.. Political pressure ie Sanctions the main reason
with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait filling the void.
4/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 3.0 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.8 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.3 mmbls)
If as expected the DOE confirm these numbers well it ainīt going to help the contracts very much right now.. A fact.. The cost
of storing 1 barrel of oil onshore US is today $1 to $1.25 per month. The contracts at the current contango price give you a
return of about $3 per barrel over the same month.. Just a note.
4/5 GMT 20.41 British Petroleum - BP:NYSE
One of the best buyīs at the moment amongst the majors is BP. For sure it will cost the company to clean up the mess in the Gulf.
Yet if you take the time to study stock charts from similar companies that have gone through what BP now is experiencing..
Well letīs just say BP is a Good Buy. With the Dome technique in capping the blow out looking like itīs a winner the third hole
should be shut-in next week..
4/5 GMT 20.29 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
With both Brent and WTI down in the - 4% region the question is why.. Well this site has laid the ground for this scenario
for some time as there is an over-supply of Crude in the World and it only takes a Greek crisis or an impending China slowdown
to "cool the jets" among the bulls in the market. The Oil Price much like the market at large has been stretching further
than the fundamentals to back it up allow. The Gulf oil Spill has little or no effect on the contracts simply because
this is not a tight sector. The API stats out later should confirm this.
4/5 GMT 05.08 Central Banks - Australia RBA
4.25% with a bias to hold off on further increases.. Yeah not so much. Another Central Bank firmly on the wrong track.
3/5 GMT 09.13 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Production starts
With the production start-ups in Lematang, Indonesia and Volund, Norway pretty much half of the production "lost"
to Enquest has been replaced.
Net start-up production:
Lematang 2.100 boepd
Volund 4.100 boepd
3/5 GMT 01.58 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
Enquest was but the first step in the Lundin Petroleum Rejuvenation...
27/4 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 5.3 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 0.7 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd
Refineries 84.7% - 0.4%
26/4 GMT 12.15 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
I wrote,
27/11 GMT 21.52 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
"I can only reiterate - There is a lot of TYK in this company"..
Trust your investment decision and just let it ride!
26/4 GMT 11.55 The EU - Greece
There is only one way to fix this. Greece leave the EU! Reestablish your own currency and adjust it to Reality..
This will lead to increased trade with the world at large and bring back competition with countries in the region.
Just a thought...
26/4 Australia - Anzac Day
Lest We Forget.
23/4 GMT 02.23 The EU - Greece - Government Debt
The average Govt Debt in the 27 EU Countries is - 7%. For Greece it was - 12.7% and then it quickly became - 14.0%..
What a great Club to be a member in...
The fact is that the failed EU project is severly hurting the Global Economy! There are no gains in an economy of scale
as the EU is 27 countries that are totally different from eachother and as it is becoming more apparent with very different
views on what constitutes a Federal Economy......
23/4 GMT 01.15 Iran - Iran begins war games in Persian Gulf oil route
Beginning on Thursday Iran is set for three days of Fun & Games in the Persian Gulf. War games are usually held in
summer but this year the elite Revolutionary Guard has itchy trigger fingers and could not wait..
One of the toys Iran is bringing to the games is the new attack speedboat, described as an "ultra-speed and smart" vessel
called "Ya Mahdi." Iran has also indicated that 313 smaller speedboats with the capability of firing rockets and missiles
would participate.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, flew to Zimbabwe on Thursday where he was welcomed by President Robert Mugabe,
a meeting of two leaders united in fierce opposition to the West.. Iran is the biggest exhibitor at a trade exposition
Ahmadinejad is scheduled to open in Zimbabwe's second city of Bulawayo on Friday.
23/4 GMT 01.05 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
So the Obs-listing is still in place.. Until after the 2010 Q1 Report as if that should carry more weight than an AGM??
So the 11/5 is the Obs-listing End Date!
I reiterate, Cellpoint Connect - Strong Buy.
20/4 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 0.7 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 1.7 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 3.1 mmbls)
Refineries 85.1%
There is a build of 1.9 mmbls at Cushing which could give an indication of oil in the system. The API does track oil
in other parameters than the DOE...
20/4 GMT 02.17 China - Power Output
Chinaīs power generation in March rose 17.6% YoY to 336.95 billion kilowatt hours extending recent rapid growth on
the back of rising industrial demand. Yet the YoY percentage should be viewed in the light of the fact that March 2009
was heavily effected by the financial crisis.
A Note:
As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of Chinas power consumption, consequently power output is
viewed as a key economic indicator...
20/4 GMT 01.54 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - SPC Technology
Donīt expect too much information from the company or Atlas Copco until the development of the products are more
or less done. Donīt expect any more information from this site either. Apart from the statement that this co-operation
between AC and Guideline is going to go far.. A Strong Buy!
19/4 GMT 15.02 Goldman Sachs - GS:NYSE - Warren Buffet
Good old boy Warren Buffet has been intimate with GS since 1954.. The oracle ofcourse knew nothing about the current
problems... Yeah right..
19/4 GMT 10.31 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
I did say..
"Patience Is A Virtue"..
So the Atlas Copco deal comes to fruition!
19/4 GMT 10.28 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Bankruptcy
The fact that CEO Ulrik Jansson is leaving the company is simply the first step on the road to Bankruptcy.
That the current CFO Bo Askevik could save the companyīs excistence is just silly. This is the culmination
of a process that started with the CEO and CFO leaving the Board last year. The writing has been on the wall
for a long time. Bankruptcy!
19/4 GMT 01.45 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
What a change in 20 days.. OPEC and the USA are both looking at lower Crude Demand.. Iran has elevated the
shipping frate rates not so much because more oil is shipped across the world but rather because of the fact
that 19 VLCCīs and Suemax vessels are currently storing Iranian Crude and this number is growing. In October
of 2009 there were about 165 vessels storing oil today that number is about 95, yet this is above the norm as
ship storage is not part of any strategic reserve.
Asian refiners are heading into the work-over season and the Northen Hemisphere into Summer yet Q2 is a negative
quarter as far as the contracts are concerned.. Unfortunatly it looks like Gasoline is going to drive the
Crude Contracts this Northen Summer, not good for the recovering economy....
18/4 GMT 18.54 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The coming week is going to be a milestone for the "new" Cellpoint Connect!
This site gives this stock a recommendation of - Strong Buy.
14/4 GMT 23.27 EnQuest PLC - ENQ:SAX - ENQ:LSE
Without going into specifics, this company is not going to sit around doing nothing.. The partnership between Petrofac
and the Lundins means forward momentum. Also with the rather bold statement made by Petrofacīs CEO concerning a 30%
growth this year, a year that is already nine months old expect - Imminent Motion!
14/4 GMT 02.43 China - Crude Import
I wrote,
22/3 GMT 13.31 China - Crude Import
China's imports of Iranian crude oil contracted by nearly 40% in the first two months of 2010,
compared to the same time last year.
Is China perhaps getting positioned for a potential US/Israel military solution or at least tougher sanctions
in response to Irans moronic stance on the Nuclear Issue...? The loss of export dollars does hurt Iran!
As it turns out China did get onboard the sanctions programme, as they should as should the rest of the world..
13/4 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.6 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.7 mmbls)
A build across the board.. The DOE stats are expected to show pretty much the same picture, much due to the Easter
Weekend when demand is lower.
13/4 GMT 19.54 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Production Report
This company is in Dire Straits! The Didon field is in serious decline and despite the fact that the company has shut
in several wells to increase pressure in the structure it could only produce a bit above 5.000 bopd.. That is a serious
problem. Didon is quickly reaching the point where further enhancements, drills are not going to warrent the increased
production costs.
As for Azurite this is in the hands of the operator, yet if they feel the need for water injection at this
early stage in production things do not bode well. Injection is done for several reasons but primarilly to either replace
produced fluid in the strata or to increase pressure and if it is the case of the latter then total maximum production
estimates aswell as reserve estimates may need to be reassessed. The technical problems on this drill are something I
have pointed to many times before and as I wrote last year they have had negative effects on the production time table..
A faulty valve is apparently the current reason and this could mean pretty much anything, yet it is down in the well so
if it is a blow out prevention valve or an injection valve is rather beside the point as it has to be fixed, at best.
At worst geology could be the culprit yet I have no more information concerning this aspect.
The simple fact is that the company has increased itīs debt structure and seeīs falling production numbers. It also has
no Plan B if either Didon or Azurite should fail to produce as any new production is years away, at the absolute earliest
in 2013/2014... And to attain new production the company is going to have invest huge sums.
Then there is the ticking time bomb, the convertible shares issue...
At a share price below 18 SEK the convertibles are more or less worthless.
Stay away from this one boys and girls! Yet my views are already well known...
7/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 2.0 (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Gasoline - 2.5 (API - 3.0 mmbls)
Distillates + 1.1 (API + 0.7 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.2
Crude Import 9.6 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 0.75 mmbopd
Refineries 84.5% + 3.4%
Total Demand + 1.6% yoy
7/4 GMT 02.09 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin
Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well plugged and abandon after finding gas yet with poor quality flow..
Given the "political" situation surrounding these drills I would caution about making a definite
decision until the full programme is concluded.
6/4 GMT 05.09 Central Banks - Australia RBA
4.25% with a bias for more, yet then Australia got out of the crisis in far better shape than most if not all!
As long as the Resource Run has legs..
6/4 GMT 03.02 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest
EnQuest will start the day with an in issue total of 345.159.920 shares.. On par with Petrofac.
The Lundin Petroleum demerger terms of 1.3474 EnQuest shares for each Lundin Petroleum share will see a
subsequent increased share total of 773.512.635 for EnQuest PLC.. Perhaps a reverse split would be in order...
5/4 GMT 02.11 Central Banks - Australia RBA
Will they or wonīt they!?.. I suspect the rate will be left as is on Tuesday..
1/4 GMT 02.45 Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH
Next to drill off the Falklands.. Sea Lion 14/10-B is set to be spudded as soon as the Ocean Guardian drilling rig
is released from Desireīs Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well..
1/4 GMT 02.07 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest
Today is the last day of trade to partake in the Dividend in the form of 1.34 shares in the new entity EnQuest..
I doubt very much that the Lupe stock will take a beating in comperative terms to the pricing of EnQuest. As to
the share price for EnQuest it should end up in the 16 SEK to 20 SEK range - 115 pence to 119 pence. Thus
the parts are already worth more than the sum of the whole. Consider also the situation EnQuest will find itself
in with no debts, major assets and a partner in Petrofac that has very, very long legs...
30/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 0.4 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 0.9 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 1.0 mmbls)
Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd - 0.3 mmbopd
Refineries 82.1% + 1.3%
30/3 GMT 04.13 Oil - VLCC Tankers
The surplus of supertankers competing for 2 mmbls cargoes of Middle East crude expanded as oil companies
slowed demand for ships. There are 15% more very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, for hire over the next 30 days
than there are cargoes, according to the median estimate of five shipbrokers and two owners. A week ago, the
excess was 2.5%. Demand is likely to be weakened by Easter holidays this week...
29/3 GMT 01.41 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin
Oil.. Yet at this time it does not seem to be enough for it to be a Commercial Discovery.
28/3 GMT 22.21 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The bottom line is that the Obs-listing will be in place until after the two AGMīs on 21/4..
After which a removal will not, should not meet any resistance.
"House Cleaning" simply has taken the new financiers longer than initially thought..
The good news is that the business of getting the company moving forward is more than just
ongoing despite the drawn out process of getting the stock back on to a normal trading status.
25/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE
Natural Gas + 11 Bcf
24/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 7.3 (API + 7.5 mmbls)
Gasoline - 2.7 (API - 0.0 mmbls)
Distillates - 2.4 (API - 2.5 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.4
Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 0.6 mmbopd
Refineries 81.1% - 0.2%
Total Demand + 3.6% yoy
23/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 7.5 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 0.0 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 2.5 mmbls)
Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd + 1.2 mmbopd
Refineries 80.8% - 0.5%
Crude Imports took back the loss from the week before.
23/3 GMT 09.34 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - New Website
All that needs to happen now is for Aktietorget to get a move on and remove the company from the
OBS-Listing!!
22/3 GMT 20.30 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Kenya - Bogal - Current Drill
Gas...
22/3 GMT 13.31 China - Crude Import
China's imports of Iranian crude oil contracted by nearly 40% in the first two months of 2010,
compared to the same time last year. Chinese customs data showed that Iran, which was China's
third biggest foreign supplier of crude oil last year, slipped to fourth behind Russia in the first
two months of 2010. Iran shipped 2.53 million metric tons of crude to China, a fall of 37.2%
compared to the first two months of 2009. China's crude shipments from its number one supplier
and the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, rose 5.4%, and those from Angola and Russia rose 71.6%
and 50.8% respectively to take second and third place. Iran was the only major crude supplier
to China to show a fall in deliveries, a drop which comes as Western powers have urged Beijing to approve
proposed new United Nations Security Council sanctions against Tehran over its disputed nuclear activities.
Is China perhaps getting positioned for a potential US/Israel military solution or at least tougher sanctions
in response to Irans moronic stance on the Nuclear Issue...? The loss of export dollars does hurt Iran!
22/3 GMT 13.20 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Again itīs all about the Dollar.. Because $80 just does not have a fundamental leg to stand on..
$60 to $65 perhaps but certainly not $80... The world is over-supplied with oil OPEC has plenty of
spare capacity and demand is lackluster. The worry is that large Hedge Funds will drive the price North
as is being done with Gasoline at the moment. Nice play and profitable but dangerous for the
Global Economy!
20/3 GMT 14.19 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
Good news on the way.! Then find a new Bourse to list the Stock on! First North?
20/3 GMT 14.18 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
Patience Is A Virtue..
18/2 GMT 03.06 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin
Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well. The 30 day expected drilling time matures in the coming week..
16/3 GMT 22.53 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX - Trading Halt
Australian Bauxite Limited has finalised a placement of 10 million fully paid ordinary shares at 35 cents per
share raising $3.5 million before costs.
The placement was arranged by State One Stockbroking Ltd. Shares were issued to institutions and sophisticated
investors. Settlement of the placement will take place on Thursday, 18th March, 2010.
16/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 4.0 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 3.7 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Crude Import 8.0 mmbopd - 1.2 mmbopd
Refineries 81.3% + 0.4%
16/3 GMT 03.02 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq
The new movement on the Khurdistan/Iraq issue has seen this oiler like most of the other relative
minnows in Northen Iraq move nicelly in share price...
15/3 GMT 23.04 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX - Trading Halt
Trading Halted.. To resume on 17/3. The reason for the halt is due to an upcoming capital raising.
Given the companyīs aspirations and itīs current minute float a influx of capital is simply good
sense.
15/3 GMT 06.15 China - Power Output
Chinas total power output grew by 7.9% YoY to 269.60 million megawatt hours in February. This then the official
statistics. In January power output was 353.1 million megawatt hours...
As always it is very difficult to get "straight" stats from China so please take these numbers with a pinch
of salt. An Updated version will be forthcoming yet it does very much look like the ouput fell severly in
February.
13/3 GMT 05.40 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX - Tasmania
The company has applied for eight new bauxite exploration tenements in Tasmania covering an area totalling
1,508 square kilometres and containing good quality bauxite in favourable settings for potential development.
ABZ CEO, Ian Levy - "These unexpectedly high quality bauxite discoveries are especially exciting because
they are all in cleared land, near to rail transport networks leading directly to major export ports in a
state with a well-developed mining sector. There are also coal mines and an aluminium smelter nearby which
could assist in making the processing of bauxite in Tasmania attractive. "Because of this major expansion in
our tenement areas, we intend to step-up our exploration efforts to accelerate the rate of expansion in our
JORC-compliant resources and to establish project prioritisation. "These new discoveries of bauxite demonstrate
that the disciplined work by our exploration team led by Jacob Rebek since 2006, and Tamara Coyte in Tasmania,
has given us control of the core of the Eastern Australian Bauxite Province which we believe contains better
bauxite than most bauxites world-wide."
13/3 GMT 04.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest
A Swedish oil company that Again actually gives you a Dividend...
As long as you own the Stock by the 1/4..
13/3 GMT 04.28 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
New financiers a new CEO who also has put his own Cash on the line for the Company. The debt situation rectified,
new and old commitments being met etc...
So Aktietorget when is the company going to be removed from the Observation List? I suspect this will be
concluded before the end of the month. Any later and you are in the Realm of the Ridiculous!
10/3 GMT 14.25 China - Crude Demand
"Chinese Crude Imports fell 20% in January, down to 4.03 mbopd from the December peak of 5.0 mbopd"..
China imported 4.83 mmbopd in February. So basically imports are back at the 2009 December level. The
difference being the import/export net... China imported net about 0.2 mmbopd in February.
9/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 6.5 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 3.2 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 2.8 mmbls)
Refineries 80.9%
9/3 GMT 03.30 Spain - You are Fair Game!
As with Iceland the market smells weakness in Greece and the EU at large, as it should..
And as a Free Market Capitalist I can only partake.. Spain is the next fruit ripe for the picking....
7/3 GMT 17.53 Iceland - A glimpse at the Future, yet again..
Icelands economy and itīs problems with Deficit, attack on itīs Currency, Financial Crisis and now a Fiscal Crisis
has for years been the forebarer of things to come and so again I belive.. The NO! vote to bailing out UK and Dutch
banking customers is a very healthy sign. Yet it is also a preamble to what is to come when the large EU countries
like Spain, Italy, UK start going down the tube.
Anyway as Iceland goes I belive much of the rest will go aswell, each country taking care of self first.. In this
public outrage will grow much like it has in Icelands referendum.. The fact that Icelands Prime Minister thought
the referendum pointless - is completely unbelivable or maybe not yet If Icelandians had any sense and they do
they should throw Johanna Sigurdardottir out into the Street. Also only in the Socialist mind can a population
of citizens of a country be asked to pay back losses incurred by a private bank/entity... Hmmm.. Stimulus Packages..
I wrote in 2008,
3/4 GMT 01.55 Iceland - A study in Desperation
The Icelandic State has a Secret Plan to Bag the Big Bad Bear... No itīs not Monty Python itīs for real...
Apparently Iceland is going to beat the market place and "put them thar bad hedge funds in their place.."
Face it you are fair game... And no you canīt beat the market!! Especially as the Icelandic economy has since
two years been a very good testbed for the global problems ahead...
And,
As stated before this Crisis has not dropped down from a Sunny Summer Sky as it would seem when you hear one politician
after another trying to put the whatever back into the bottle... Let the market take care of the market! The decision
to put a moratorium on Short Selling is one of the most moronic to date. The Short Sellers be it Hedge Funds or singel
entities or whom ever actually called this market exactly right. Let the market take care of the market!
7/3 GMT 16.45 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest a classic "Lundin Rejuvenation" Updated
The sum of the parts are greater than the sum of the whole..
With the EnQuest construct the above will again become a truism. The market especially the Swedish market has
always had a hard time getting the valuation of oil companies right. Most analysts realy only read the company
press release and base their assessment on that. The Lundin Oil/Petroleum companies have due to diversification
been therefore hard to get a handle on, unless you actually read the complete company report/reports...
This deal will open up the valuation of the UK assests and let the current shareholders of Lupe come along for
the ride. Interesting that the "lex ASEA" tax rules will be implemented.. A bonus for Swedish shareholders.
This overall shareholder construction will be as or possibly more succesfull than the Red Sea or Sodra deal!
The London listing is also a major plus, something Lupe should consider or at least an Oslo notation..
5/3 GMT 01.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest a classic "Lundin Rejuvenation"
So there we have it.. But LUPE is giving away Production and Reserves?... Yeah right now, but there is
much more to come!!.. And with the new entity being offered to current owners there is only a win-win outcome.
Shareholder value! A Trademark Concept for this Group.
3/3 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 4.1 (API + 2.7 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.7 (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.9 (API - 4.0 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.3
Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 0.77 mmbopd
Refineries 81.9% + 0.7%
Crude Inventories are - 1.7% below last years level. Gasoline however is 7.6% above the same time last year..
This is of interest as we are heading into Gasoline Season..
3/3 GMT 02.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
Interesting times ahead.. Look for a classic "Lundin Rejuvenation" of the company..
2/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 2.7 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 4.0 mmbls)
2/3 GMT 01.25 The Market - Financial Crisis - Fiscal Crisis - The EU
I wrote,
20/12 GMT 03.01 The Market - Financial Crisis turns to Fiscal Crisis
The Stimulus Packages that have driven the market since earlier this year are about to run out and when
they do most politicians will want to roll them over for yet another "Tax-Payer" paid for "stock market run"..
This then puts us even deeper into the Fiscal Crisis that is fast coming over the hill. See my earlier
postings on this from 2007, 30/10, 9/11 2008 etc...
With the EU about to default on all fronts the Fiscal Crisis is going to be way worse than most earlier thought.
Yet you have to wonder if most have even given this scenario even one thought.. Central Banks are starting to gear
up for rate increases and you have to wonder on which planet these institutions live?
The Fiscal Crisis is not going to be quick-fixed with stimulus packages, and this is the root of the problem that I
fear is going to be with us for a long time going forward..
1/3 GMT 12.09 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Petrofac
The Financial Times article concerning a possible sale of Lupes UK and North Sea fields to Petrofarc would not include
Alvheim or Luno.
26/2 GMT 13.43 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
So the report from the companyīs Annus Horribilis is out and it for sure ainīt pretty reading. Yet itīs also
mostly a historic text with little relevance to the company today with new owners, debt situation rectified,
new and old commitments being met etc. Itīs now a case of looking forward...
24/2 GMT 16.32 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Despite the negative stats from the US the contracts rise as it is still all about the Dollar play...
24/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 3.0 (API - 3.1 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.9 (API + 1.7 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.6 (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.4
Crude Import 9.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 0.85 mmbopd
Refineries 81.2%
The inventory levels of Gasoline are above the 5 year curve and as such will put a dampener on Crude once the winter
season comes to an end. Also Saudi loadings of Crude to the US are at a 23 year low, much due to lower demand but also
the fact that Canada and Africa more and more are the suppliers of choice. US domestic production is also increasing...
24/2 GMT 10.41 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Current Drill
About 1.000 meters from TD... Not expecting "that" much from this one as I wrote earlier yet a lot can happen over
the last kilometer... Please note the last posting was at 1.600 meter from TD, sorry.
24/2 GMT 01.34 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
Friday the 26th seeīs the 2009 accounting report or communique which is the primary vehicle to the stockīs removal
from the Observation listing. The report itself will not be happy reading as it is a summary of a "really bad year"
yet it is the fact that it can finally be published which is most important.
Then there are the things that will follow...
23/2 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 3.1 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.7 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Refineries 80.8% + 0.9%
23/2 GMT 03.04 Global Warming Hysteria - Maldives
Yes... Well apparently the Maldives are not going to sink into the Indian Ocean due to sea levels rising..
Seems someone got the climate model around the wrong way and sea levels are not going to rise that much,
if at all.
Well anyway.. Well done all you out there in the Maldives for clinging on to hope and a tall palm tree
or something...
So how is the Global Warming thing working out for you up there in the Northen Hemisphere?... *G*
23/2 GMT 02.37 PA Resources - PAR:SAX
I will make no further comments about this company for the simple reason, whatīs the point.. I just hope that
not too many are fooled by the "tricky" accounting practices or the "next year it will all be better" forward
looking statements. Remember gross and net production - Big Difference!
23/2 GMT 00.43 The EU - A Pigs Breakfast..
In 2008 the largest government deficits in percentage of GDP were recorded by Greece (-7.7%), Ireland (-7.2%),
Romania (-5.5%), the United Kingdom (-5.0%), Malta (-4.7%), Spain (-4.1%), Latvia (-4.1%), Hungary (-3.8%),
Poland (-3.6%), France (-3.4%) and Lithuania (-3.2%). In 2010 you can more or less multiply the numbers for Greece
and Ireland by two and the rest by about 2.7 and you will get an accurate deficit rate. Remember to be a member of
the EU anything below +3% is bad... France and Germany have been below that line for many, many years...
Eight Member States registered a government surplus in 2008: Finland (+4.5%), Denmark (+3.4%), Luxembourg (+2.5%),
Sweden (+2.5%), Bulgaria (+1.8%), Cyprus (+0.9%), the Netherlands (+0.7%) and Germany (0.0%). Two member states were
actually compliant with the Unions own rules.. Today yeah not so much.. Why in the hell would you want to belong to a
club full of losers? For instance when Greece joined the Euro, prices in country went up by 30% overnight, prices not
wages. To what end? More moronic politicians.... I just donīt get it.. Given my in this particular posting very short
and simplistic view of the whole thing yet..
I give the EU about 2 to 5 years before it is broken up and the lessons of history are again sadly relearned..
22/2 GMT 23.57 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin - Spud
Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well Spud..
The Ocean Guardian arrived in Falklands waters on 19 February 2010, the Liz
14 /19-A exploration well was spudded at 14.15 hours (GMT) on 22 February 2010.
The well is being drilled to an estimated target depth of circa 3,500 metres.
Drilling operations are expected to take approximately 30 days and a further
announcement will be made once drilling is completed.
16/2 GMT 04.47 China - GDP Growth
When the Chinese Gov put a squeeze on Bank Credit it did so not to curtail growth but rather to bring the financial
side into line with Reality. A reality that is simply such that the Chinese economy is not overheating it is slowing
down..
Given I view much of the world through the realm of Commodities yet they are clearly pointing to a post-stimulus package
world that is heading for a double dip. China is the worlds producer of cheap goods and the world just ainīt buying
enough to carry the economy more than slightly sideways. In this it should be noted that a 5% GDP growth number for China
is pretty much Recession like so todays 10% is more like 5% for the rest of the world...
13/2 GMT 16.00 China - Power Output
China's power output increased 40.14% year-on-year to 353.1 million megawatt hours (MWh) in January. Now to the actual
facts.. A 40% yoy increase does seem impressive and in China size does matter.. The fact is that the increase in output
since October 2009 has only been 8.6%. And I suspect growth in Q1 of this year will stay around 5% to 7%..
Simply put Chinas economy is slowing down!.. See earlier post about power output..
12/2 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 2.4 (API + 7.2 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.3 (API + 1.6 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.4 (API - 1.5 mmbls)
Refineries 79% (API 77.0% - 1.0%)
Import 8.3 mmbopd
Not going to help the contracts very much..
12/2 GMT 04.57 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin - Drill Start
Finally the long awaited drilling programme is set to get going.. Four wells, with an option of six more.
Diamond Offshore Drilling's semi-submersible unit Ocean Guardian is set to do the work. To be drilled is the Alpha Project.
Alpha is a large, well-defined, structural closure, covering an area of over 300 square kilometres. Desires mid-estimate
for the potential recoverable reserves for Alpha is 7.8 trillion cubic feet, with 15 Tcf in the upside case. The Alpha
acreage is bounded by the following coordinates:
49° 20' S 59° 24' W
49° 20' S 58° 54' W
49° 40' S 58° 54' W
49° 40' S 59° 24' W
Drilling activity should start in Feb/March, the 13th of February was an initial start date..
10/2 GMT 13.23 China - Resource Demand
January Iron Ore Imports 46.6 million tonnes, down 25% from December.
January Copper Imports 292.096 million tonnes, down 21% from December.
January Aluminum Imports down 17% from December.
10/2 GMT 13.15 China - Crude Demand
Chinese Crude Imports fell 20% in January, down to 4.03 mbopd from the December peak of 5.0 mbopd,
yet they are still up 33% year on year. Chinaīs net fuel exports were in January 1.1 mmbopd.. This then due to
lower domestic demand..
10/2 GMT 10.02 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - MALÅ GPR Australia
The company is to expand itīs sales division in Australia and New Zealand. I assume this is to be done via the
GPRtech offices below, situated on Sydneys North Shore.
Mala GPR Australia
Suite 4, 105A Ben Boyd Road
Neutral Bay, NSW, 2089
Australia
Mob: +61 (0) 43828902
Fax: +61 (0) 2 9908 1484
web@malagpr.com.au
9/2 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 7.2 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.6 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 1.5 mmbls)
Refineries 77.0% - 1.0%
US crude oil stockpiles reached 338 mmbls last week, highest storage stats since October 2009.
Itīs called a lack of demand, refining margins. Stats from the DOE will be out Friday, two days late.
9/2 GMT 14.31 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - New Deals
The new guys have been burning the midnight oil of late and hard work pays off! The turn around just
keeps turning. This is goin to bloom into something very nice down the road a bit...
9/2 GMT 14.00 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
Atlas Copco... The story continues and I belive we are getting close to the end game. Howīs that for cryptic..
You just have to be patient.. The financing is fine and simply along the lines of the agreed to structure.
Insider shareholders are increasing their stake in the company...
Name 30/9/09 21/1/10
Peter Hjort 462,171 1,599,877
Jan Hjort 781,179 1,202,358
Yggdrasil 540,468 1,080,936
Nordica Life 500,000 1,000,000
Mats Nilsson 347,443 944,682
Klas Carlin 291,605 903,978
Olle Grinder 315,907 631,814
Anders H.son. 281,750 563,500
5/2 GMT 20.34 Gazprom - GZPFY:OTC - Shtokman Gas Field Delay
Gazprom Delays The Giant Shtokman Gas Field by 3 Years..
Russia has delayed the start of its giant Arctic Shtokman gas field by three years to 2016 after a dip in
European demand and a surge in North American shale gas output dampened its export prospects. Liquefied natural
gas (LNG) output will begin in 2017 instead of the earlier planned 2014. The decision was made due to - "changes
in the market situation and particularly in the LNG market."
This decision can and will have an impact on the Nordstream Project.. As the delay to the pipeline part of the
project could mean the second Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Europe, which is scheduled to be completed in
2012, will be delayed or have to get gas elsewhere.
5/2 GMT 04.51 World - The Markets
Just a quick observation.. The EU wants to be seen as one entity with one policy on most everything, not
least of all - Economics. Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain are all in trouble and yet they have to follow EU
rules in so far as GDP growth, fiscal matters, etc, etc within the realms of one currency one central bank.
The thing is these nations are not states but Nations who happen to for some obscure reason want to be members
of a Union. The US, Australia, Canada etc have member states, the EU has member Nations.. Big Difference!
4/2 GMT 22.30 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX - Reserve Report
The most salient comments in the report are,
"The 2009 reserves are in-line with our expectations. Overall proved plus probable reserves are down slightly due
to reserves that were produced in 2009; however, we were able to convert a significant amount of probable reserves
to proved reserves as a result of our 2009 activities. While current reserves are important, we are working on
some larger, longer term projects that will require additional development before reserves are recognized. This
includes our SAGD projects at Blackrod and Onion Lake, where no reserves from thermal recovery have been booked."
For sure a huge increase would have been nice, yet that was never on the cards. A serious oil company simply
building assets..
1/2 GMT 03.23 Etrion ETX:TO
The listing of the stock in Stockholm will add another dimension to this company... Solar power is the only
today most viable alternative energy source.. We happen to be living in the light of a Hydrogen Nuclear Power Plant
called - The Sun!
1/2 GMT 00.12 USA - VIX Index
31/1 GMT 23.44 The IPCC - The UNīs own little factory of Lies
I wrote,
"That the IPCC reports contain lies and politically motivated agendas is not news and this site has been saying
so for years... So the Himalayaian lies are just more of the same... There is even more of the same"......
A STARTLING report by the UN climate watchdog that global warming might wipe out 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest
was based on an unsubstantiated claim by green campaigners who had no scientific expertise. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change said in its 2007 benchmark report that even a slight change in rainfall could see swaths of the
rainforest rapidly replaced by savanna grassland. The source for its claim was a report from WWF, an environmental
pressure group, which was written by two green activists. They had based their "research" on a study published in the
science journal Nature, which did not assess rainfall but looked at the impact on the forest of human activity such as
logging and burning. WWF said on Saturday it was launching an internal inquiry into the study.
This is the third time in as many weeks that serious doubts have been raised over the IPCC's conclusions on
climate change. Two weeks ago, after reports in London's The Sunday Times and The Australian, the panel was forced to
retract a warning that climate change was likely to melt the Himalayan glaciers by 2035. That warning was also based on
claims in a WWF report. The IPCC has been put on the defensive as well over its claims that climate change may be
increasing the severity and frequency of natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods.
IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri was fighting to keep his job over the weekend after a barrage of criticism.
Scientists fear the controversies will be used by climate change sceptics to sway public opinion to ignore
global warming - even though the fundamental science, that greenhouse gases can heat the world, remains strong.
The latest controversy originates in a report, A Global Review of Forest Fires, that WWF published in 2000.
It was commissioned from Andrew Rowell, a freelance journalist and green campaigner who has worked for Greenpeace,
Friends of the Earth and anti-smoking organisations. The second author was Peter Moore, a campaigner and policy
analyst with WWF. In their report, they suggested that "up to 40 per cent of Brazilian rainforest was extremely
sensitive to small reductions in the amount of rainfall" but made clear this was because drier forests were more
likely to catch fire.
The IPCC report picked up this reference but expanded it to cover the whole Amazon. It also suggested that a slight
reduction in rainfall would kill many trees directly, not just by contributing to more fires.
The IPCC said: "Up to 40 per cent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in
precipitation; this means the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could change very
rapidly to another steady state. "It is more probable that forests will be replaced by ecosystems that have more
resistance to multiple stresses caused by temperature increase, droughts and fires, such as tropical savannas."
Simon Lewis, a Royal Society research fellow at Leeds University who specialises in tropical forest ecology,
described the section of the report by Rowell and Moore predicting the potential destruction of large swaths of the
Amazon as "a mess". "The Nature paper is about the interactions of logging damage, fire and periodic droughts, all
extremely important in understanding the vulnerability of Amazon forest to drought, but is not related to the
vulnerability of these forests to reductions in rainfall," he said. He believes the IPCC should ban the use of
reports from campaign groups. "In my opinion, the Rowell and Moore report should not have been cited; it isn't
sufficient evidence to back any claim at all, as it contains no primary research data," Mr Lewis said. The WWF
said it prided itself on the accuracy of its reports and was investigating the latest concern. "We have a team of
people looking at this internationally," said Keith Allott, its climate change campaigner.
The Amazon constantly undergoes huge changes because of natural variability in the weather, aside from damage caused
by human factors such as logging and agricultural clearance. Spotting the additional impact of global warming against
such a changing background is difficult, especially when the world has so far warmed by about 0.7C since
the 18th century.
The Australian
29/1 GMT 02.23 World - The Markets
I am increasingly convinced that we have entered into the - 20% to - 30% Correction in the World Markets.. If the
correction is a total collapse is one thing but this could be the year of Sell into every Upturn.. A very tricky
yet profitable market for the Trader. Yet I have written about this before..
29/1 GMT 01.10 Oil World - A Saudi Aramco View
Saudis say don't worry about Peak Oil..
DAVOS- There is still plenty of oil in the ground and the world should put aside fears about "peak oil", the head of
the Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco said on Thursday. "The concern about peak oil is behind us," chief executive
Khalid al-Falih told a session on energy supplies at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The peak oil theory that oil
supply is at or near its peak gained currency when prices zoomed to a record of nearly $150 a barrel in 2008.
The issue remains a concern for many in the industry.
Total's chief executive Thierry Desmarest said the world would struggle to surpass 95 mmbopd in the future, 10% above
present levels. "The problem of peak oil remains," he told the same panel.
His contention was swatted aside by Falih. "Of the 4 trillion barrels of oil the planet is endowed with,
only 1 trillion has been produced," Falih said. "Granted most of what remains is more difficult and complex to exploit.
yet there's no doubt we can do a lot more than the 95, 100 mmbopd that are projected in the next few decades."
Saudi Arabia has a long list of projects in its portfolio that would more than offset declines, he said.
28/1 GMT 20.23 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The companyīs Debt Situation is now completely Resolved...
28/1 GMT 01.17 China - Crude Demand
2004 6.6 mmbopd
2005 6.4 mmbopd
2006 6.9 mmbopd
2007 7.5 mmbopd
2008 7.9 mmbopd
2009 7.6 mmbopd
Plans are underway to construct Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage sites at 8 new locations in phase 2 where China
will add a further 170 mmbls of storage in addition to the 104 mmbls completed under phase 1. Some of these sites
should be ready by the end of the year. Assuming the SPR is filled over a 3 year time frame this could add a further
1% to 2% to Chinese oil demand going forward. Yet only 19% of Chinas energy needs are met by oil and the countrys growth
in oil dependence is weakening, due in large part to advancing technology...
27/1 GMT 12.03 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
The new financiers have pushed the old creditors fairly hard into accepting "something much more tomorrow" against very
little today. In this convertible rights into shares has been the way chosen. It is the level of these conversions
that is of interest, as they give some indication of target levels. The AGM and resolution of the accounting issues
should see this stock head for the 2 SEK level rather smartly. The pre-trading halt level was in the region of 2 SEK...
Add to this the new products and other sundries that are in the pipeline...
26/1 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 2.2 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 2.0 mmbls)
At the same time refiners are operating at levels not seen since the shut-down during the 1989 Hurricane Season..
25/1 GMT 03.52 Oil China - Crude Products Demand
China's demand for Gasoline, Diesel and Kerosene, will grow by about 4% in 2010. The same refined products rose an
anemic 1.4% in 2009. A total of 400.000 bopd refining capacity will be added this year, and in this increase
surpluses of the main refined oil products. Hencely the refined oil market will for all intents and purposes remain
oversupplied this year...
So we have weak World Oil Demand, more than ample US inventories, rising OPEC and non-OPEC production and questions
about the continued growth in Chinaīs Oil Demand....
In this I would like to point out that when it comes to China the numbers most published are those for Crude Import
and they are impressive with a 14% increase I seem to recall being the latest year-on-year stat. China has simply
not enough oil production today so ofcourse they have to import.
However these numbers say very little about actual Crude Demand...
23/1 GMT 01.42 Oil USA - Crude Production
North Dakota raised its forecast for oil output on growth in and around the Bakken Shale formation, portending further
gains nationwide after the largest US increase since Dwight D. Eisenhowers first term as president.
Output may reach 300.000 to 400.000 bopd by mid 2011 and stay at that level for 10 to 15 years.
The states previous estimate was 220.000 to 280.000 bopd.
The forecast was raised on discoveries by companies such as Continental Resources Inc. Drilling advances are enabling
producers to tap the Bakken Field, where rocks lack the porosity and permeability of conventional oil fields.
The Bakken contributed to last years 7.5% gain in US crude output, the biggest since 1955 and the first in
18 years. The Energy Department forecasts a 1.8% increase in 2010. In this the estimates for 2009 were an increase of
6.4%... New technology is the name of the Game!
22/1 GMT 22.15 Peak Oil - Venezuela - 513 Billion Barrels of Heavy Oil
Anyone who has read this site knows my views on the Religion of Peak Oil... Well the Church is about to get another
knock...
Venezuela has long been known to hold some of the worlds biggest deposits of oil sands thick bituminous resources
that require substantial investments and refining methods to develop. In a new assessment, government geologists with
the United States Geological Survey have provided a dramatic new estimate of how much oil is technically recoverable
from these oil sands, in a well known area known as the Orinoco Oil Belt; 513 Billion Barrels of Heavy Oil!
The tally far exceeds previous estimates of around 235 Billion Barrels, and it represents the largest accumulation ever
assessed by the USGS.
The Orinoco is a critical component of Venezuelas claim to holding the worlds biggest oil reserves, ahead of
Saudi Arabias 264 billion barrels. But while most of the oil found in the Middle East can be extracted relatively
easily through traditional production methods, the Orinocos oil sands are as we know tougher to produce. Yet the
technology for extracting oil from oil sands is being perfected pretty much everyday by companies in many different
parts of the world... New technology is the name of the Game!
22/1 GMT 02.16 China - Power Output
What a difference 10 days make... On the 11th only 80% of the stats were published. Still only year-on-year stats...
Power output in China surged last month due to economic expansion and a cold snap. Electricity generation in December
leapt up 25.9% year-on-year, the strongest growth in a non-holiday month in the last 12 years. Put this against the
10.7% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
21/1 GMT 23.01 USA - VIX Index
The run up of + 24% after two days of losses on the Indexes suggests that large investors like institutions
are leaving the Market.. This could be the beginning of the correction I have called for. The weekend can break
the momentum yet once this is running it will continue.
21/1 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 0.4 (API - 1.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.9 (API + 0.7 mmbls)
Distillates - 3.3 (API - 3.4 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.6
Imports 8.5 mmbopd
Refiners 78.4%
Gasoline Demand - 0.2%
Distillate Demand - 6.8%
Total Demand - 2.0%
Refineries are as stated before in the beginning of work-over mode. Low Imports and Demand is not picking up...
Fairly negative Report, again...
21/1 GMT 02.15 China - GDP Growth
Q4 GDP +10.7% Year-on-Year.. +8.7% for 2009. Yet China has pumped $1.4 Trillion into itīs economy of late so
who knows.. China is not known for presenting Accurate Statistics! Also some economists and in this I would agree
note that a 5% annual growth rate in GDP would actually be close to a recession. See earlier postings on this subject.
20/1 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 0.4 (API - 1.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.9 (API + 0.7 mmbls)
Distillates - 3.3 (API - 3.4 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.6
Imports 8.5 mmbopd
Refiners 78.4%
Gasoline Demand - 0.2%
Distillate Demand - 6.8%
Total Demand - 2.0%
Refineries are as stated before in the beginning of work-over mode. Low Imports and Demand is not picking up...
Fairly negative Report, again...
20/1 GMT 20.07 The IPCC - The UNīs own little factory of Lies
That the IPCC reports contain lies and politically motivated agendas is not news and this site has been saying
so for years... So the Himalayaian lies are just more of the same... There is even more of the same......
I wrote earlier in 2007,
2007 4/3 GMT 14.45 Climate Change - The Hype
To be fair and balanced, below is the abreviated 2007 IPCC Report that later will be published in May by
the UN. Where it states that if only humans where eradicated from the planet all would be well...
Or something along that line...
2007 12/10 GMT 12.02 The Noble Peace Prize - The Farce
Well I guess if you live long enough you get to see all forms of foolishness.. That the Peace Prize is
given to Gore and the IPCC for their lies and populist propaganda about man made climate change is just
icing on the comedy cake...
2007 10/12 GMT 15.23 Noble Peace Prize
Al Gore and the UNīs IPCC are handed the Peace Prize on this day. If that is not a Monty Python Moment I
donīt know what would be...
Yet take heart humans as we are Omnipotent!
Not only are Humans the sole reason for Climate Change, this on a planet that is 4 Billion Years Old where
Climate Change has occured in natural cycles for well letīs see 4 Billion Years...
BUT Humans are so omnipotent that Humans can actually Change Climate Change...
Our weapon to Change Climate Change is - Taxation!!
"I pray that theres intelligent life somewhere up in Space, Cause theres Bugger all down here on Earth."
20/1 GMT 01.06 The Market - USA
Look for a bit of a Rally later today in the US if the Republicans win a Senate seat in Massachusetts.
As a win would put the brakes on Obamas different social-ist plans... Also a "no winner gets it all" Senate is
good for the markets.. A debatable point, yet there you are. I did say a Bit of a Rally...
19/1 GMT 23.55 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway
New drilling permits, 4 as operator and 3 as participants..
The Lundins just simply doing their thing!
More on this...
19/1 GMT 23.51 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Current Drill - Corrected
About 1.600 meters from TD... Not expecting "that" much from this one...
18/1 GMT 00.22 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Opens the week with a further down turn.. Five days in a row last week, more to come this week as "The Fundamentals"
for a price even in the $70īs just ainīt there. Warmer weather, seasonally warmer weather is set to linger in the US
for awhile, possibly even be the beginnings of an early and warmer spring... The last month or so of freeze has had
a marginal effect, because the Fundamentals say - Well Supplied!
16/1 GMT 01.18 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
One of two things need to happen in the Oil Complex, either the price of Crude falls down towards $60 or the
price of US Gasoline rises above $3 a gallon. Itīs all about refining margins and at the current Crude level
few refiners are happy. OPEC producers on the other hand see todays levels of around $80 as being in the
"more than pleased with" territory.
Ofcourse oil is still in "Dollar Play" mode with a bit of help from the cold weather on the Northen part of the
planet but this is creating problems down the line for the oilers... A summer of the Crude contracts driven by
the Gasoline Price? Not unthinkable yet a too high a price of crude or products will kill the economic comeback..
16/1 GMT 01.10 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
An AGM and a delisting from the Observation List could be on the cards as early as before the end of the month..
12/1 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 1.2 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 6.8 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 3.6 mmbls)
Yeah not so good for the contracts.. With warmer weather on the way in the US if the DOE backs up these numbers
then we are looking at a very negative market..
12/1 GMT 01.13 USA - VIX Index
Below 17... At the risk of sounding like a broken record.. The correction, or rather adjustment to the new
situation is coming ever closer. Financial Crisis turns into Fiscal Crisis.. Stimulus Packages end and then where
is the market? In Trouble...
11/1 GMT 23.58 OPEC - Output
Saudi Arabian Aramco will keep itīs loadings of Crude to the US, Asia and Europe for February at the current level.
Also the Saudis are weary of a "too" high price of Crude that can hurt the economic recovery.. OPECīs current
adherence to itīs selfimposed quota is currently at about 50%, something the OPEC core countries like Saudi Arabia,
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are all watching closely. A fine line....
11/1 GMT 12.43 ShaMaran Petroleum Corp - SNM:TSX
I suspect this one is running due to the speculation effect of Iraq recently actually making new deals with the large
Oilers over production rights etc.. Another take-over target. Even without the speculative component this company
is more than well worth a good hard look. Yet if you have read this site you know this already.
11/1 GMT 11.39 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Canadas Industry Minister, Tony Clement, has given PetroChina the go-ahead for a $1.7 billion US dollars acquisition
of two oil sand projects.
This deal has been brewing since earlier last year but it is now finally approved....
The deal gives the Chinese company 60% control of Athabasca Oil Sands Corporation's MacKay and Dover oil sands deposits
in Alberta province. The two are projected to yield five million barrels of oil, according to the company. The sands
contain the second-biggest store of oil in the world. They are estimated to hold 175 billion barrels of oil. Only Saudi
Arabia holds more. But it is tricky - and costly - to extract oil from such sands. Only in the past few years has the
price of oil been high enough to make it worthwhile. Canada's industry minister, Tony Clement, said: "I am satisfied
that the investment is likely to be of net benefit to Canada."
Hence the rise in the price of PXX... A New TYK it is... now that Canada has opend itself up to Chinese Investment
in itīs Resource Industry.
11/1 GMT 01.01 Global Warming? - No, no dear that was last week! - Now itīs called Global Freezing!!
So how is this Man Made Climate Change theory working out for You? Not so well I gather... But hey donīt be so
disconsolate! An asteroid could hit us anytime and one could always argue that it actually was Man Made...
11/1 GMT 00.47 China - Power Output
And so it begins... The reporting of Chinas Power Output for December has suddenly changed and only a year on year
comparison is given, for only about 80% of Industry.. Y-O-Y the output increased by 6.7% that is for the full year.
The Chinese State is to be trusted about as far as you can throw it. And with Stimulus Packages starting to run out,
well if you have read this site for awhile you know the thoughts about this. I belive the December stats were negative
to the tune of 5% to 10%...
A Note:
As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of Chinas power consumption, consequently power output is
viewed as a key economic indicator...
7/1 GMT 20.21 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Independent Resource Estimate
Interesting reading compiled by Gaffney, Cline & Associates...
6/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 1.3 (API - 2.3 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.7 (API + 5.6 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.3 (API - 1.3 mmbls)
Crude Imports 8.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd
Refiners 79.9%
The disparity between the DOE and API were not that large.. API tends more to see the crude and Products in the
system as opposed to the DOEīs more static numbers. Cold weather though!!! Yet as last weeks show....
30/12 GMT 23.08 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX
I expect good things from this Hudson spin-off.. Good start!
30/12 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 1.5 (API + 1.7 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.3 (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Distillates - 2.0 (API - 3.5 mmbls)
Crude Imports 8.0 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd
Refiners 80.6%
If the US imported itīs usual 9 - 10 mmbopd and 1 mmbopd of Gasoline the following charts would be off the planet!
No lack of Crude and refiners in work-over mode. The price of oil is still a dollar play with the Brent Spread
thrown in just to make things interesting. Look for the new sour Crude pricing to take effect in the new year...
30/12 GMT 08.07 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
Today Cellpoint Connect AB has published a PR concerning its package of measures to improve the financial
situation of the Company. Trading in the Cellpoint Connect AB shares (CPNT) will be resumed on
December 30, 2009 at 09.20 CET. The Orderbook opens at 08.45 CET.
Trading was halted on December 16, 2009. Trading will be resumed on the
AktieTorget Observation List (unchanged).
29/12 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 1.7 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 3.5 mmbls)
25/12 GMT 22.12 Australia - Sydney to Hobart
ROLEX SYDNEY HOBART YACHT RACE
Having sailed this one three times I can only say - itīs a tough race..
24/12 GMT 11.03 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX
Great IPO, nice float. Market cap is a paltry $21m...
23/12 GMT 23.07 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT
"Look for the Trading Stop and the Observation List - listing to be lifted very soon. A new AGM is also imminent...
Hopefully before the end of the Financial Year."
The new financiers need to do a bit of "Cleaning House" first! As you do in similar situations..
22/12 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 3.7 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 1.1 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 0.7 mmbls)
The decline in storage was overall less than the market expected.. Thin trading volume this and next week due to
the holidays..
21/12 GMT 04.36 OPEC - Output
I predict OPEC will have to either increase compliance to the current production quota or actually cut output
in Q1-Q2 as compliance to the current production quota is around 50%... The World is more, more than well supplied
with oil at the moment...
21/12 GMT 02.56 Global Warming? - No, no dear that was last week! - Now itīs called Global Freezing!!
The Eastern US is facing the coldest weather in Decades... So if you are to belive the historical time frame
behind the science pushed by organisations like the UNīs IPCC we are heading for - Global Freezing!??!??
Sea Cliff Long Island, New York.
21/12 GMT 01.07 The Greywolf Site - 17.000.000 Unique Visitors
Coming up on 17 million pretty much any hour now.. Which again... Larger scheme...
I know this site is sometimes, what the hell almost always Cryptic and I do not go into a lenghty Analysis of Whatever..
Yeah well that is how things are.
I Thank You for Your Patronage!
11/10 GMT 21.12 The Greywolf Site - 16.000.000 Unique Visitors
Just ticked over the 16 million mark... Which in the larger scheme of things is fairly unimportant...
20/12 GMT 23.47 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Interesting trading levels coming up...
20/12 GMT 23.24 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT
Look for the Trading Stop and the Observation List - listing to be lifted very soon. A new AGM is also imminent...
Hopefully before the end of the Financial Year.
20/12 GMT 03.01 The Market - Financial Crisis turns to Fiscal Crisis
The Stimulus Packages that have driven the market since earlier this year are about to run out and when they do
most politicians will want to roll them over for yet another "Tax-Payer" paid for "stock market run".. This then
puts us even deeper into the Fiscal Crisis that is fast coming over the hill. See my earlier postings on this from
2007, 30/10, 9/11 2008 etc...
The immediate threat is the after years end fall in the market as trade now is very much centered on bonuses and end
of year "make the numbers look good" trading. A Fiscal Crisis is however something very much more serious and lenghty..
A Stimulus driven market is a market on Steroids.. Makes you feel strong but it makes other parts Limp...
20/12 GMT 01.27 Climate Change - In the Solar Community
A worthy repost,
"Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap.
Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on
Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates
could be a natural phenomena.".....
19/12 GMT 13.41 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria - Copenhagen - The Total Fiasco!!
And so the Comedy Ends! The total Fiasco is the best thing that could have happened!!!
One can only hope that this is due to the fact that the "Man Made Climate Change Hysteria" is slowly being exposed
for what it is ie BullShit!
To the G77 and the developing/third world that wants more money from the rest of us I can only say - Adapt!
Adapt! A word that was even interestingly used by President Obama several times, Adapt!..
This site has been saying for a very, very long time.. Climate Change is a Naturally occuring event - Adapt!!!
So Adapt! And in this I mean everyone - Adapt!!!
18/12 GMT 03.23 Australia - Censored Internet
There is a senator in Australia called Stephen Conroy, who it must be belived had a very troubled childhood... He is
the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy. Stephen has long wanted to censor the internet
"in country" to protect the Citizens (so history buffs - sound familiar?)... And the Federal Government has announced it
will proceed with the controversial legislation to censor the internet..
(so again history buffs - does this not sound a bit too familiar?)
17/12 GMT 20.57 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
"This sites "Buy Rating" stands firm"...
So the Share Issue is covered to the tune of 92% with the remaining 8% taken up by Penser.. This is far better than the
previous RI which only came in at 60%. But then there is a lot more substance in the company today than there was
in January.. The total diluted amount of shares in the company is now 59.200.148. Still a small float, in a given
risky venture yet no risk no reward... As to the speculation about the technology surrounding SPC....
17/12 GMT 01.09 China - Power Output
Chinas power output grew by 18% on an annual basis in November. This then after factors like extreme cold weather for
the month and also the weak base-line comparison to 2008 were taken into consideration.
17/12 GMT 00.39 So where does the USA Import its Oil from? - Total Petroleum Imports
CANADA 2.4 mmbopd
MEXICO 1.3 mmbopd
VENEZUELA 1.15 mmbopd
SAUDI ARABIA 1,0 mmbopd
NIGERIA 0.9 mmbopd
ALGERIA 0.6 mmbopd
RUSSIA 0.5 mmbopd
IRAQ 0.5 mmbopd
ANGOLA 0.4 mmbopd
COLOMBIA 0.3 mmbopd
UNITED KINGDOM 0.3 mmbopd
VIRGIN ISLANDS 0.3 mmbopd
BRAZIL 0.3 mmbopd
KUWAIT 0.3 mmbopd
ECUADOR 0.15 mmbopd
IRAN 0.000 mmbopd
Canada... Not Saudi Arabia... Since the middle of the 90īs Canada has doubled itīs exports to the US or rather the US has
doubled itīs Imports. With more infrastructure this amount can steadily increase going forward.. It should be noted that
the US produces about 27% of itīs daily consumption needs domestically at about 5.5 mmbopd, up 8% from the same time in
2008...
16/12 GMT 19.50 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V
Again an old favourite of this site... Been involved with this one for a long time, long time.. Finally things are starting
to fall into place. The companies infrastructure could not be better with a competency level par none amongst the staff..
More on this one going forward.. The ongoing drill seems positive.
16/12 GMT 08.23 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT - Trading Halted
Cellpoint Connect has present negotiations with external financial parties.
The Trading Halt is valid until further notice. More information about the present negotiations with the external
financial parties and a statement from PricewaterhouseCoopers about the Companyīs actual condition will be published shortly.
I did write,
"There are some Major Developments in the Pipeline!..."
15/12 GMT 03.04 Australia - Man Made Climate Change Hysteria on Steroids!
The Rudd Government will make one last attempt at having the Senate pass its Emissions Trading Scheme legislation when it
reintroduces the legislation on February 2. The ETS would only add 62%! to the price of electricity by 2013...
15/12 GMT 02.42 Iraq - Oil Production Increase
I wrote,
14/7 GMT 17.28 Iraq - Oil Production Increase
An ambitious plan has been drawn up to raise Iraq's oil production to 6.0 mmbopd by a deadline of 2017, according to
Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki. Iraq needs European capital and experts for the rebuilding process the Premier went on
to say at the Eastern European Gas conference in Ankara.
By way of the production deals made with international oil firms like Statoil, Lukoil etc.. Interesting that US firms miss
the boat.. Smart politics! Anyway Iraq can rival Saudi Arabia as the second largest source of Oil on the Planet..
In this the Iraqi Western Desert is the Key...
9/12 GMT 22.25 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Yeah... maybe below $70 before the end of the year. Next area of major support is around $66.60 yet a long way there
still. If $70 holds a bounce is not out of the question.. A Dollar play as I stated before, the US stats were just the
instigator...
9/12 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 3.8 (API + 5.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.2 (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Distillates + 1.6 (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Crude Import 8.1 mmbopd
Refiners 81.1%
On the whole a market neutral/negative report from the DOE..
9/12 GMT 10.58 OPEC - Output
And so the leaking of intentions begins.. Libya Oil Min: OPEC Won't Change Output At Next Meeting
8/12 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 3.8 (API + 5.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.2 (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Distillates + 1.6 (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd
Refiners 81.4%
The inflated Crude numbers are due to the increase of about 1 mmbopd in Crude imports. Even if Refiners did up the
capacity by 1.3%. Should give Crude a lift ahead of the DOE stats. Yet the contracts are more dependent on the
Dollar than stats like these at the moment as the market is more than well supplied with Crude, more than well...
"The fundamentals are not good with Crude being stored as I have written about before on VLCCīs to the tune of +120 MMbls
at least, add to this the storage in on-shore terminals and most importantly the spare production capacity that is evident
in most oil producing nations."
7/12 GMT 23.42 The Site & Oil
The site has veered off the path somewhat of late with a centered interest in small Swedish domestic companies.
Not without very, very good reason I have to add yet still not the core of the site. This will change going forward...
7/12 GMT 22.45 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
So where now the price of Crude? I can see $70 WTI before the end of the year and with all the pieces falling the right or
wrong way all depending on your place in the market even below that..
Yet itīs all a "Dollar Play" so letīs not get too excited...
7/12 GMT 21.21 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria - Copenhagen
And so the Comedy begins! Sources say that the organisers of the event have super-charged the ventilation system in
the complex in order to remove all of the "Smug Farts" that are going to be emitted by the delegates to this Farce!
Man Made Climate Change is a Hoax it is selfserving Crap that ofcourse is big business for the political and scientific
community, yet as the hacking of one institution shows all is not as it seems... Well Done Hackers! Evenso the facts about
Mans part in Climate Change are clear, they are null in the global perspective. Ofourse locally environment is affected
by our activity but we canīt change the climate.
Australia I am proud to say has seen politicians brave enough to stand up and say - Enough!
That we are going through a change in the climate is one thing and the answer is to Adapt - not tax! The Earth has gone
through thousands, hundred of thousands of these changes and still we are here, incredible..
The difference is that the amount of politicians have increased by an alarming number...
More or less in strict correlation to the increase in hysteria!
Something for the delegates to peruse..
I have written about this for years so just do a Ctrl+F and flick through the Earlier Postings...
2/12 GMT 14.37 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A New Bond Loan
A new Bond Loan to pay the "Parent Company" for the old bond loan... OK itīs simple refinansing yet.
The company at the same time needs Cash to pay for running costs and not at least the interest rate on
the Convertible Rights Issue due 15 January 2010.... So why not take it out of the New Bond Loan, as
cash-flow from "whatever production" is currently happening does not bring in enough Cash...
"The old bond loan amounts to NOK 300,000,000 and
has an annual effective coupon rate of 8.75 percent.
It matures on 10 March 2010 and the bond loan was
issued by the Parent Company."
It will be interesting to see the coupon rate on the new loan.. Especially as for the next year and a half
the company also has a Bond Loan at USD 100,000,000 that has an annual effective coupon rate of 10 percent.
It matures on 20 June 2011.. There is even a third loan running that matures in 2012... This along with a whole
host of other "things" is ofcourse not news to anyone investing in the company.. Or is it..?
2/12 GMT 11.47 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT
There are some Major Developments in the Pipeline!... The 14/12 is the Milliarium...
29/11 GMT 17.19 Just an Early Monday Morning Thought!
Outside a Book a Mans best friend is a Dog,
inside a Dog itīs too Dark to Read..
Groucho Marx
29/11 GMT 17.18 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
This sites "Buy Rating" stands firm...
27/11 GMT 22.20 China - Power Output
A statistic that is a bit of old news yet...
Chinas power output grew by 17.1% on an annual basis to 312.1 billion kWh in October. This then after a fall of 7% in
September. The comparison to 2008 stats should be viewed in the light of a major fall in output from July 2008 onwards.
A Note:
As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of Chinas power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key
economic indicator...
27/11 GMT 22.08 Etrion ETX:TO
27/11 GMT 21.52 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
"I can only reiterate - There is a lot of TYK in this company"..
Trust your investment decision and just let it ride!
27/11 GMT 13.49 Oil USA - Crude Production
According to Platts US production of Crude is set to see an increase by 6.4% for this year, 2009. This then the
largest increase in 40 years... So much for Peak Oil in North America... Yeah you know Hubbert's Peak is BS!!
Old theory, warped statistics and the rest.. The fact is that the US could increase itīs domestic production of oil
and gas by twice todays numbers if exploration was allowed around the entire coastline and tar sands, oil shale sites
were given the full exploration rights...
Ofcourse you canīt totally discount the Peak Oil theory based on one statistic observation, yet there are too many stats
from around the globe that put a huge dent in the almost religious theorem.... That Hubbert's Peak is based on data from
the 1950īs and in North America does say a lot.... especially as the US actually can increase production and 1P Reserves..
27/11 GMT 13.41 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
Why so disconsolate? 2009 has to date not been a "great" year as far as exploration goes but there have also been a lot
of successes in Luno, PL340, 25/4-10S, 16/1-12, 16/2-5..
Petrovskaya-1 yeah not so much to be happy about, yet no harm, no foul.. No Capex no Worries but also no Future!
27/11 GMT 10.07 USA - S&P
I wrote earlier,
7/10 GMT 04.26 USA - S&P
Again another writing on the wall,
18/8 GMT 01.47 USA - VIX Index
The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P..
Or "Lalaland" could continue for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance!
I see the fall coming closer and closer as the markets are tired and way over-stretched and the "Lalaland"
sentiment is getting real old real fast... Dubai is one of those "small" things that can trigger the whole
thing....
27/11 GMT 03.31 Etrion ETX:TO
Check it out...
27/11 GMT 02.51 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT
I became aware of this company as you do in the investment sector about one week before the first posting on this
site. IT technology is not really my field but now and again you have to broaden your horizons... CPNT is a spin-off
from Ericsson and this is where the problems start as the people who ran the company after the spin-off are
technology-types ie they can build incredibly innovative devices but, Business - yeah not so much!
The company was put on the Observation List due to Financial Reporting and Financial problems ie no reports and no
money.. This is now being addressed as new investors have come into the company and an AGM is called for the 14/12
to bring clarity to the situation. The new investors have put in new capital to the tune of about 30% of the current
market cap and this then in a belife in the products the company has and itīs future.
The company has orders with China Mobile and in this also an option for further orders to the same company the missing
bit has been capital, which now is solved. Other than this there is Poland and not at least Russia...
The stock is High Risk but as I wrote it is a prime "Turn Around Candidate", well worth a good hard look!
As I stated earlier "A removal from Aktietorgets Observation List is imminent!".. And this is a critical part of the
companies immediate and long term future......
24/11 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 3.3 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.7 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 2.4 mmbls)
24/11 GMT 03.43 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - Rights Issue
SPC Technology... MALÅ Geoscience is one thing. SPC is something completely different...
Just a reflection..
18/11 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 0.9 (API - 4.4 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.7 (API - 0.1 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.3 (API + 0.5 mmbls)
Refineries 79.4%
Import 8.6 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.2
18/11 GMT 14.27 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT - Observation List
A removal from Aktietorgets Observation List is imminent!.. Trading volumes should pick up right smartly on the back
of this.
17/11 GMT 16.52 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - Rights Issue
Well that was fairly predictable... The company is looking for 35MSEK and with 29 484 074 shares outstanding the Issue
Price could only be 1.2SEK, just basic mathematics.
16/11 GMT 14.33 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT
A very interesting "Real Turnaround" candidate.. Worth a good look!
13/11 GMT 09.50 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - Q3 - 9 Month Report
The report itself showed slightly better numbers, bottom line than for the same period last year. Rather irrelevant as the
center of interest lies in the new technology being developed. This costs money and there is a risk involved but
the technology is such that the risk is worth taking. The company has after a reverse split 29 484 074 shares outstanding,
a fairly small float for a company on this side of the aisle.. Much of the reason for the earlier than expected report
was - information.
12/11 GMT 23.38 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q3 - 9 Month Report
If you followed the September presentation this report was more than predictable.. The interesting thing is what is
happening in Russia, especially as far as different environmental restrictions are concerned.
12/11 GMT 23.20 OIL - The IEA
Finally the IEA is starting to get the picture! The Peak Oil "nutters" have cluttered up the airwaves long enough, itīs
time to get practical about Oil Demand and Oil Supply..
12/11 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 1.8 (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.5 (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 0.3 (API na mmbls)
Refineries 79.9%
Import 8.7 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.0
US demand for Petroleum Products is down by almost 5% yoy.. Saudi Arabian shipments of Crude to the US are at the
2002/2003 level. Distillate demand is 14% below last year..
12/11 GMT 11.46 Site Updates
Due to travel the site has not been updated for awhile...
Coffs Harbour, NSW..
3/11 GMT 17.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 3.3 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.5 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.8 mmbls)
Refiners 80.5% - 1.3%
The API reports Imports to be down... I think these numbers are somewhat skewed with the fairly large drop in Refinery
Output..
3/11 GMT 03.14 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
Looking good, looking very good...
2/11 GMT 05.32 China - Power Output
China's power generation in September fell 7% from a record high in August, but year on year growth quickened to 9.5%,
the fastest in 16 months, mainly due to the comparison to last year's weakened base. Power generation has picked up in the
past few months as electricity demand gradually recovers in the world's third largest economy, which has been given a boost
by government Stimulus Spending. Any year on year stats should be seen in the light of the fact that 2008 was pretty
bad, worse...
A Note:
As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of Chinas power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key
economic indicator...
2/11 GMT 04.11 China - HSBC PMI
The HSBC PMI came in at 55.4, up from 55.0 in September. Running faster than 18 months ago. Yet remember China much like
the the US is on Stimulus Steroids... Good News for sure but I just want to point to the fact that this could be
short lived.
2/11 GMT 01.39 2012 - The End? Or Just a Calendar Ticking Over??
The Mayan k'in Calendar much like an Odometer ticks over to a new cycle on 21/12/12 or does it...? I think the about
7 million current Mayan decendents would like to see the calendar just do that.. Others see the end of The World!!
I see an Interesting Options spread bet.... Three years from now...
Mayan k'in - Long Count Calendar Countdown
1/11 GMT 22.43 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - Argus Sour Crude Index
Here we go again... Last week Aramco said it would start to use the Argus Sour Crude Index for the pricing of itīs oil, which
actually makes sense as the quality of oil would be more in line with or congruent to WTI as the Argus index is calculated as
a differential to the NYMEX light sweet crude (WTI) settlement price. NYMEX will start listing the new contracts around the end of
the year. It should be said this has been tried before but it lookīs like it may work this time. More transparity!
Note that the ASC-Index is used for sales to the US..
29/10 GMT 02.35 USA - Q3 GDP Report
If itīs below 3% itīs bad, concensus is 3.2%.. Yet it is the internals that are the crux - Final Sales,
which is GDP minus the Inventory Change.. Look for 1.5% which is good, lower and itīs whooa long hard weekend...
One thing donīt forget that these GDP numbers hold a lot of Government Stimulus money ie they are Fluff. Itīs only
when the economy hits the road clean from "Washington Steroids" that we will know how the US really is trucking along..
28/10 GMT 16.03 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Q3Report
It is getting increasingly difficult for the company to get a grasp on all of the promises, prognosis and half truths it has
produced. It is also becoming critical for the company to somehow pay off current loans and keep the new bankers happy.
Daily production is at the same level as in 2004/2005 and unless the company can find a project that actually has
production, well then...
All of the projects in Africa with "stuppendous potential and huge reserves... etc" are nothing more than pipe-dreams and
a hope that it will be better next year, or the year after that or. None of these will come on line for production before
2012/2014 at best and that is if the exploration phase goes totally as planned.
So where is the next xxxx bopd production project, actual money in the bank project?? There is none!
Dwindeling/stagnant current production, growing debts, no capex going forward..
Even more sold/unsold oil ex royalties? "the missing barrels".. Where is the money going to come from to buy into the African
licences ahead of production or even pay development costs? Unless the company can severly improve itīs cash-base, well then...
17/10 GMT 22.27 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
I stand fully behind this Rights Issue, even if it adds on to the 7.5 MSEK from earlier this year. Yet a further 35 MSEK is
nothing at this stage of the companyīs development.
Nothing has changed my position on the - Buy Rating.
Very Seldom Given - I might Add!
Yet a caveat... If I am being missinformed from whatever source or there is even a hint of the old Swedish-Two-Step I will
drop this stock like a Brick!
13/10 GMT 08.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno
Lundin Petroleum has successfully completed production testing of the
Luno field discovery well 16/1-8. The well was temporarily abandoned as a discovery well in 2007,
with the objective to re-enter the well for future well testing (DST) and permanent abandonment.
The well 16/1-8 was re-entered, perforated and tested in two intervals with flow rate up to
approximately 5,700 barrels of oil per day (900 Sm3/day) through a one inch (64/64") choke.
Production testing operation was carried out with the drilling unit Transocean Winner, in a water
depth of 108 metres.
Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments: "The test results from this well
are positive. We are proceeding with the preparation of the field development plan for Luno in tandem
with a further appraisal well in early 2010 which will allow us to optimise the development plan and
potentially increase Luno recoverable reserves."
11/10 GMT 21.12 The Greywolf Site - 16.000.000 Unique Visitors
Just ticked over the 16 million mark... Which in the larger scheme of things is fairly unimportant...
11/10 GMT 14.58 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
I can only reiterate - There is a lot of TYK in this company, especially in the way the company is run day to day...
Think on it!
10/10 GMT 12.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - The North Sea
Please note the salient facts concerning Thistle & Broom...
Company Presentation
10/10 GMT 10.05 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - The Missing Barrels
Since 2007 the company has somehow "lost" about 2 mmbls.. Where are they? Or rather are they... The discrepancy between
produced and sold barrels of oil actually comes to 2 mmbls since 2007. You have to wonder where these missing barrels are
or were.. Strange that the company can store unsold oil at the same time they are asking the share-holders for more cash...
I am sure itīs very easy for the company to bring clarity to this situation..
9/10 GMT 14.46 Norway - Nobel Peace Prize - And now for something completely different..
Itīs Alfred Nobels Flying Circuisessss...
And the winner is - Not George Bush! The twelve Eurovision Song Contest points go to Barack Obama who when nominated
had been President for all of two weeks..!!
You have to like the Norweigans who always give us a Good Laugh in October!!!
7/10 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 1.0 (API - 0.25 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.9 (API + 0.55 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.7 (API - 2.9 mmbls)
Refineries 85.0%
Import 9.1 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.8
7/10 GMT 04.26 USA - S&P
Again another writing on the wall,
18/8 GMT 01.47 USA - VIX Index
The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P.. Or "Lalaland" could
continue for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance!
7/10 GMT 03.59 Australia - The First Country Out of Recession
I did write,
28/5 GMT 01.42 The First Country Out of Recession
It is turning out to be a race between two of my favourite countries - Australia and the US, itīs a family thing!
Both of the Worlds most Capitalist Countries are in I would have to say a dead heat, Yet with as it
turns out a slight favouritism to Australia. Commodities is the name of the game in this play and when things
turn around the OZ economy is the one of comparative stability and this will only build in the face of increased
commodity demand...
The RBA pretty much confirmed it...!
7/10 GMT 03.54 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
I did write,
"Yeah, I think we may be coming to the end of this run-up"....
As it turns out there is more to build on and in this I would recall my caveat. "However there is a lot of
a future TYK in this stock, a lot". In this my point being that the company/stock will surprise you...
6/10 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 0.25 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.55 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 2.9 mmbls)
Refineries 83.0%
Import 9.1 mmbopd
3/10 GMT 16.25 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - Falkland Islands - Four New Wells
Finally the long awaited drilling programme is set to get going in Feb 2010.. Four wells, with an option of six more.
Diamond Offshore Drilling's semi-submersible unit Ocean Guardian is set to do the work. To be drilled is the Alpha Project.
Alpha is a large, well-defined, structural closure, covering an area of over 300 square kilometres. Desires mid-estimate
for the potential recoverable reserves for Alpha is 7.8 trillion cubic feet, with 15 Tcf in the upside case.
Company Site
1/10 GMT 05.56 Lundin Petroleum - Iraq - Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp
For all those who missed the latest post 5/9 about this little venture..
Kurdistan Presentation
1/10 GMT 05.24 Japan - Tankan Index
The Large Manufaturing Index came in at - 33, a bit off from the expected - 32. The Index is now at the same level as it
was in 2001! In other words, yeah not so good...
1/10 GMT 03.50 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Yeah, I think we may be coming to the end of this run-up....
In this I should state that I did slightly miss the absolute bottom in the current cycle in December 2008, but there you are...
However there is a lot of future TYK in this stock, a lot.
29/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 2.8 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 1.7 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 2.3 mmbls)
Refineries 83.6%
Import 9.5 mmbopd
Not enough demand and too much oil.. The correlation between the API and DOE stats is about 78% on a historical basis...
28/9 GMT 02.41 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Both contracts fell - 9% last week...
25/9 GMT 04.20 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
The technical signal for a further downward movement was broken at the $66.06 level.. Yet then there are the fundamentals
and they are not calling for a higher oil price today. The fundamentals are not good with Crude being stored as I have
written about before on VLCCīs to the tune of +120 MMbls at least, add to this the storage in on-shore terminals and most
importantly the spare production capacity that is evident in most oil producing nations. Itīs just the Fundamentals!...
23/9 GMT 23.09 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
There are many reasons as to why a lower oil price.. A slower than expected build in demand, the end to stimulus packages
in many countries, huge amounts of Crude stored across the globe. OPEC over-producing, Russia today the biggest producer of oil
beating Saudi Arabia. Huge amounts of Crude stored across the globe, again Huge amounts of Crude stored across the globe.. Etc..
$40 is a target..
23/9 GMT 22.08 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
As to why the sudden interest in the stock and the volume in the trade...
23/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 2.8 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls)
Gasoline + 5.4 mmbls (API + 3.8 mmbls)
Distillates + 3.0 mmbls (API - 1.9 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.0 mmbls
Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd
Gasoline Import 1.0 mmbopd
Refineries 85.6%
23/9 GMT 07.01 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
"A Buy rating is called for.. And thus given!"
Not without merit!
23/9 GMT 06.59 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria
A worthy repost...
Something for the Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "Patients are running the Asylum"..
The simple fact is that Climate Change is a Naturally Occurring event and Humans need only to do One Thing - ADAPT!
Taxation is not adapting it is sleazy politicians doing what they do best, pardon them because most of them are morons!
Adaptation is changing the crops we grow, and where we grow them and when.. The Northen Hemisphere is going to see less
oil dependency as winter becomes warmer, adapt! Etc.. Adapt to changed criteria...
23/9 GMT 01.32 DNO International - DNO:OBX - Iraq - Kurdistan
A lot of the smart money left this stock when getting paid for "Oil Produced" became a problem...
The signals were there.. I however belive that with the Norweigans on "All Fronts" eating enough humble pie and in fact
apologizing to the KRG this can be settled in a fairly civilized manner. Also itīs always good to know with Whom you
actually are doing business...
Never forget - Oil is Political!!! Just because you happen to hand out the Noble Peace Prize.....
22/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 0.3 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 3.8 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 1.9 mmbls)
Driving Season is well and over! Still a build for Crude so again itīs down to the Import and Refinery Stats. Crude storage was
expected to be drawn down by - 1.6 mmbls...
22/9 GMT 04.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Ashirovskoye
Lundin finally cleaning the Valkyries House!
Proven and probable reserves of the Ashirovskoye field were at 31/12 2008, 202.000 mmbls net to Lundin Petroleum. The sales
price was $4 million. Now try to judge the value of the other Russian holdings of this company on the basis of this and the
Lagansky deal!?
Good Luck!
22/9 GMT 04.22 DNO International - DNO:OBX - Iraq - Kurdistan
This latest problem, Yeah not so good! This is a Serious Problem... Yet this is Kurdistan and the ongoing battle between
Iraq and the autonomys region is not going to go away anytime soon. Unless both sides simply as they see it make the better deal.
DNO however have made some big mistakes.
19/9 GMT 04.07 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia
Just a note. The deal with Gunvor does not preclude a deal with some other Russian or foreign entity. Not at all.
18/9 GMT 07.37 Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd CVN:ASX - Thailand
Australias Carnarvon Petroleum has received a contingent resource estimate for concession L44 at 11.3 MMbls in Thailand.
Carnarvon said the estimate demonstrated the success of its second and third quarter exploration program and would assist
in the preparation and application of a production licence over the area. Concession L44 includes the Bo Rang A and B areas
which, according to independent consultants Gaffney Cline & Associates, have a contingent resource estimate of 9.6 MMbbl.
The L44-W structure, also within concession L44, is estimated to contain 1.7 MMbl. Gaffney Cline & Associates also estimated
the NSE-F1 extension in concession L44/43 could contain 4.1MMbbl.
18/9 GMT 03.57 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Rangkas
The farm out in itself is smart business as this region is tricky, and have we not been here before...!?
Carnarvon Petroleum has lotīs of experience from Thailands waters and is in this a good partner at 25% with Lupe at 75%.
Another deal another contact, that is how you build something larger.
18/9 GMT 03.28 Australia - Oil & Gas
Just a general note, there are a lot of very interesting projects ongoing and soon to be ongoing in the country both on
and off-shore. WA390P is one for instance.. Just a note...
17/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Natural Gas storage is just under 17% above the five year average. Last week 66 Bcf were added into storage. At the same time
US domestic production of NG is 31% above the five year average. So no lack of gas here.
16/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 4.7 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.2 mmbls (API + 1.3 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.2 mmbls
Imports 8.9 mmbopd
Itīs all about the Import numbers..
The market expected a drop in Crude Inventories of about 2.0 mmbls. Distillate Inventories are at a 26+ year high, so the
Northen Winter better be cold... Post Labour Day weekend Gasoline demand is falling and is at a 9 month low..
15/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.4 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.3 mmbls)
15/9 GMT 04.01 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
The US is heading into a period of lower Crude demand and also the maintenance season for Refiners, so look for Refinery
runs to fall. The interesting part is that Distillate stocks which are season-critical are unusually high for this time of year.
Just a note...
15/9 GMT 03.59 OPEC - Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabias cut in production in order to live up to the OPEC quota has actually made Russia the largets producer of Oil
in the short term. The Saudis which have more than taken their part of the cut in production can have lost as much as 25%
of GDP on a yearly basis due to their adherence to the quota. Cheating amongst other producers is as I have pointed to before
wide spread...
11/9 GMT 04.24 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno
Just a reminder,
3/4 GMT 06.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - StatoilHydro
I did say things were afoot for Lundin...
Lundin Petroleum will transfer to StatoilHydro a 30% licence interest in Production Licences 359 and 410, and a
10% interest in Production Licence 409 located in the GLA, north of the Sleipner field, Norway. StatoilHydro
operates the nearby Sleipner and Grane platforms which are production facilities for oil and gas on the Norwegian
continental shelf.
StatoilHydro will pay a disproportionate share of the costs related to the 3D seismic programme to be carried out for
PL359 and PL410 along with the one well to be drilled in each of the two licences. For PL409 StatoilHydro will enter
at ground terms. Lundin Petroleum will remain operator of all of these Production Licences and will remain the key
player in the GLA, along with StatoilHydro. In addition to these farmout arrangements, a rig swap has been agreed where
Lundin Petroleum has been given the option to utilize two drill slots on a Barents Sea rig in exchange for two drill
slots in the North Sea.
Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments: "We are very pleased to be working closely with
StatoilHydro in the Greater Luno Area. We believe that following the discovery of the Luno field the area has the
potential to be a major new producing area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. This transaction creates a joint
ownership in the most important licences in the Greater Luno Area in order to secure a timely development of the area."
11/9 GMT 03.39 Japan - GDP Growth
Yeah growth. Maybe not so much...
Japan's economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.3% in the second quarter of 2009, a smaller expansion than initially
estimated. The government had reported last month an annualised 3.7% growth for the quarter. New data also showed the economy
grew 0.6% in the three months to June from the previous quarter, the first positive growth in more than a year but down from
the 0.9% growth initially estimated.
For Q1, the revised report showed the economy shrank by 3.3% from the previous quarter for an annualised contraction of 12.4%.
11/9 GMT 00.03 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
The "kitchen table laptop ie small investor" ownership of this company is closing in on 70% of the outstanding shares.
Ofcourse this means that certain retail brokers are pushing this stock like there is no tomorrow, for no other reason
than trade volume... Helped by an equally eager media. I am just saying... Azurite today, (Murphyoil numbers) the share to
Pare 3.000 - 4.000 bopd so we are again back at about 12.000 bopd which has been pretty much the level since 2005...
Where is the next real xxxx bopd project? Not exploration but real money in the bank xxxx bopd project?? The debts are the same
and as it seems the asset ratio, for now. Just a rhetorical question...
10/9 GMT 23.24 Oil - Iran - Exports
Revenue from Iranian oil exports plunged 51% in the first five months of the Iranian year due in no small part to the global
economic recession. Revenue from the export of Iranian oil products was $1.57 billion for the first five months of the Iranian
year, down from $3.26 billion in the same reporting period in 2008. In this the Iranian year begins March 21.
10/9 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 5.9 mmbls (API - 7.2 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.1 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.0 mmbls (API + 3.3 mmbls)
Import 9.1 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd
Refiners 87.2%
Total Petroleum Inventories - 5.1 mmbls
Imports are about 1.0 mmbopd below the average hence the fall in Crude Inventories. There is however no lack of oil to import,
rather the opposite is true... A fairly neutral report.
10/9 GMT 10.29 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp
9/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 7.2 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 3.3 mmbls)
As the API stats are derived from different criteria and also where the Petroleum is in the system the big draw in Crude should
be viewed in that context, refinery numbers are here crucial. The one to watch is the build in Distillates with winter on the way
and all....
8/9 GMT 00.43 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Nice uptick in Canada 10.32%, and just above 8% in Sweden.. Stock doing nicelly on itīs short term up-trend since July and in the
longer term since December 2008... Still a very good trader..
7/9 GMT 23.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL338 - Wildcat Well 16/1-12
For a wildcat drill the result is not that bad, found was an oil column of about 40 metres in complex reservoir rocks of
jointed bedrock, but no Jurassic reservoir rocks were present. which could be the discovery of a new field further to the
South in an area as yet virgin territory. Preliminary analyses indicate an oil/water contact that is about 15 metres shallower
compared with the 16/1-8 oil discovery, and this is then most probably a separate discovery..
5/9 GMT 03.33 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp
I did write,
1/10 GMT 13.09 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V
Worth a look!
ShaMaran Petroleum Corp, the Lundin Groupīs little Iraqi adventure...
Kurdistan Presentation
4/9 GMT 12.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky - A Further Comment
The value of the Gunvor deal is not in the numbers because they are a zero-sum game. The value is in the structure of the deal.
The Lagansky projects part of the current valuation of the company or itīs share price should be zero, with a certain exception
given to the usual potential value of the project. To date it has only generated costs and there are as yet no bankable reserves.
To assume a valuation of the company or the specific Lagansky project from the numbers in the deal is simply wrong.
The numbers in the deal are again - zero-sum, nothing more nothing less. The real value is in the Structure of the deal..
4/9 GMT 04.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
A critical support level is $66.06 and if breached technically the way is open for $64.50..
3/9 GMT 16.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Natural Gas storage is 18% above the 5 year average...
3/9 GMT 15.49 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky - A Comment
So again the Lundin "boys" make a deal that may be a little hard for the market to digest straight away. Hark back one year when
foreign oil companies were given marching orders by the Russian State and obscure Environmental Agencies put frankly "silly" demands
on oil companies activities. Lupe came through this period with relative ease but were looking at losing the majority ownership in
the Lagansky project to Gazprom. The deal with Gunvor changes the whole playing field, Lupe retain 70% of the field and have a partner
with teeth and connections. So why? Has the Russian State gone mad? No ofcourse not.. Oil in Russia is like most commodities part of
the National Security Grid and ownership of that grid is Russian, yet the country lacks expertise especially in the oil sector and
that is where foriegn companies have a foothold. The Lundins have the experience and expertise needed. Also the company has very
good connections and lines of communication with the State. After all it all comes back to the State..
The partnership with Gunvor is just one expression of this! I think a bit of lateral thinking is needed here by both the market and
analystīs of the same... Itīs very simple this is a major deal for Lupe and also for the Russian oil sector.. Gazprom could after all
have exercised it's option and taken a majority share and then let different government departments put demands on Lupe that would
have made the minority share almost worthless, but they chose not to.. In this I belive there is more to come...
3/9 GMT 12.24 USA - Saudi Arabian Export
Saudi Arabia has reduced the price of oil to the US and plans to keep crude allocations unchanged in October.
Saudi Light oil will cost $2.90 a barrel, a reduction of $1.80. It also makes it cheaper than US Light crude.
The availability of Saudi oil to the US has been unchanged for months but shipments have been smaller,
due to weaker demand...
3/9 GMT 10.58 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky
And the good news is that the deal with Gunvor erases the 50% + 1 share option. So Lupe retains the full 70% of Lagansky..
3/9 GMT 03.41 World Proven Gas & Oil Reserves
North America 1984 10.51 Tcm 101.1 bbls
South and Latin America 1984 3.23 Tcm 36.3 bbls
Europe and Eurasia 1984 42.02 Tcm 96.7 bbls
Middle East 1984 27.40 Tcm 430.8 bbls
Africa 1984 6.22 Tcm 57.8 bbls
Asia Pacific 1984 7.02 Tcm 38.1 bbls
World Total 1984 93.89 Tcm 761.6 bbls
North America 1994 8.42 Tcm 89.9 bbls
South and Latin America 1994 5.83 Tcm 81.5 bbls
Europe and Eurasia 1994 63.87 Tcm 80.3 bbls
Middle East 1994 45.56 Tcm 661.7 bbls
Africa 1994 9.31 Tcm 65.0 bbls
Asia Pacific 1994 10.07 Tcm 39.2 bbls
World Total 1994 142.89 Tcm 1017.5 bbls
North America 2004 7.32 Tcm 61.0 bbls
South and Latin America 2004 7.19 Tcm 101.2 bbls
Europe and Eurasia 2004 64.02 Tcm 139.2 bbls
Middle East 2004 72.83 Tcm 733.9 bbls
Africa 2004 14.06 Tcm 112.2 bbls
Asia Pacific 2004 14.21 Tcm 41.1 bbls
World Total 2004 179.53 Tcm 1188.6 bbls
North America 2005 7.46 Tcm 59.5 bbls
South and Latin America 2005 7.02 Tcm 103.5 bbls
Europe and Eurasia 2005 64.01 Tcm 140.5 bbls
Middle East 2005 72.13 Tcm 742.7 bbls
Africa 2005 14.39 Tcm 114.3 bbls
Asia Pacific 2005 14.84 Tcm 40.2 bbls
World Total 2005 179.83 Tcm 1200.7 bbls
North America 2006 7.98 Tcm 59.9 bbls
South and Latin America 2006 6.88 Tcm 103.5 bbls
Europe and Eurasia 2006 64.13 Tcm 144.4 bbls
Middle East 2006 73.47 Tcm 742.7 bbls
Africa 2006 14.18 Tcm 117.2 bbls
Asia Pacific 2006 14.82 Tcm 40.5 bbls
World Total 2006 181.46 Tcm 1371.7 bbls
North America 2007 8.88 Tcm 71.3 bbls
South and Latin America 2007 7.27 Tcm 123.2 bbls
Europe and Eurasia 2007 57.39 Tcm 142.2 bbls
Middle East 2007 74.17 Tcm 754.1 bbls
Africa 2007 14.54 Tcm 123.5 bbls
Asia Pacific 2007 14.80 Tcm 41.3 bbls
World Total 2007 177.05 Tcm 1411.7 bbls
North America 2008 8.87 Tcm 70.9 bbls
South and Latin America 2008 7.31 Tcm 103.5 bbls
Europe and Eurasia 2008 62.89 Tcm 144.4 bbls
Middle East 2008 75.91 Tcm 742.7 bbls
Africa 2008 14.65 Tcm 122.0 bbls
Asia Pacific 2008 15.39 Tcm 42.0 bbls
World Total 2008 185.02 Tcm 1408.7 bbls
2/9 GMT 12.14 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky
I wrote,
"Again here we Go - Many good things on the horizon..."
Smart deal! Very smart deal to share (30%) the block with Gunvor Cyprus Holding Ltd, a company founded by itīs Swedish
chairman Torbjörn Törnqvist.. With connections to the very top of Political Russia... Very smart deal!
2/9 GMT 02.23 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
It ainīt Rocket Science...
2/9 GMT 02.02 Australia - The Manly Sea Eagles vs Titans
5/9 19.30 AEST Brookvale Oval, be there!
1/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 3.2 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 2.8 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Again itīs down to the Import stats.. If the DOE is in tune with the API numbers then we have a short term upturn, yet I suspect
it is going to be a Import - Refinery run scenario, with actual Demand thrown in for real effect. Interesting trading!
1/9 GMT 14.58 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
A Buy rating is called for.. And thus given!
1/9 GMT 03.43 OPEC
The agreed cut in the quota for the OPEC group was - 4.2 mmbopd. However the current production levels are way above that level,
way above. How far above is not hard to tell buy perusing the numbers and in this I belive it is closer to - 2.0 mmbopd...
Probably a bit more. And it is not due to Saudi Arabian cheating...
31/8 GMT 22.34 USA - VIX Index
I have warned about this for more than some time,
"The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P.. Or "Lalaland" could continue
for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance!"
There are more signs than just the VIX that the US market is set to turn down and they are across the board commodities, bonds,
investor confidence etc. Copper falls due to China, Oil retreats as soon as the stock market dips.. There are too many signs to
ignore, add to this that September ainīt a fun month to be invested in.. Just look at the stats on monthly returns in September!
27/8 GMT 20.03 Iraq - Oil Export
In July Iraq exported 2.1 mmbopd, up 0.1 mmbopd from June..
27/8 GMT 03.29 Oil - Iran - Khuzestan
I wrote on 26/4 about a major oil field find in the Khuzestan province and it does seem as if the Iranians have hit Black Gold
again with a potential 8.8 billion barrel find in the Soussangerd oilfield. The largest Iranian discovery in 5 years...
So 4.5 billion barrels in Band-e-Karkheh in April and a further 8.8 billion barrels in Soussangerd...
26/8 GMT 22.40 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
The inability of the contract to go past the very important resistance level of $75 and thereby crossing the 200 MA does give it
credence to make way for a minor correction with $60 as a very strong support level.. Other minors on the way down ofcourse...
Then there are the Fundamentals!!
26/8 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 0.2 mmbls (API + 4.3 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.7 mmbls (API - 1.8 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.8 mmbls (API - 0.15 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.1 mmbls
Total Petroleum Demand - 0.9% yoy
Total Petroleum Inventories + 10.7% yoy
Daily Crude Import has over the last four weeks been 1.2 mmbopd lower than the same period last year.. Distillate stocks are above
the average range and demand is 7.9% lower than last year, this at a time when Distillate stocks and demand are more going to run
the Contracts for Crude as the US moves into winter. Lower than usual Imports and still rising Crude stocks make for tricky trading
in the contracts...
26/8 GMT 01.29 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
Again here we Go - Many good things on the horizon...
25/8 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 4.3 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 1.8 mmbls)
Distillates (API - 0.15 mmbls)
The API reports "normal" Imports so last weekīs drop was a short term affair...
25/8 GMT 02.01 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A Comment
The major shareholders ownership of the company has dropped from 48% to 33% in a "fairly short time". The Q2 report did not change
any of my earlier views, Quite the opposite it only strengthened them... A New Rights Issue is in the making!!
Updates to the Site - Travel & Cricket
Not so many updates to the the site due to The Ashes, which England unfortunatly won. Congratulations!
The Oval a great venue!!
18/8 GMT 01.47 USA - VIX Index
The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P.. Or "Lalaland" could continue
for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance!
17/8 GMT 15.21 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
I did write on the 2/7..
"Interesting things afoot with Atlas Copco... They are way interested!"
Atlas Copco Secoroc AB via the new entity SPC Technology AB a partnership between New Street Capital LLP and Guideline Technology
is to further evaluate GODTīs technology...
17/8 GMT 01.10 USA - Oil - The Hurricane Season
Not much happening as yet on the Hurricane front. The Eastern Pacific El Nino effect is the cause, yet late August to October is
the heavy part of the season.
16/8 GMT 22.20 USA - Gasoline Demand - The Department of Transportation
The Federal Highway Administration has since 2002 put out monthly reports on the Traffic Volume Trends ie miles driven etc. Yet
this year the information suddenly stopped being released in May. As a gauge of Gasoline Demand in the US the FHAīs report has
been one part of the puzzle, yet now not so much...! Could the fact that US Gasoline Demand for the first six months of 2009
was at its lowest level for the period since 2003 have anything to do with it...? Ofcourse not....
However I see Gasoline Futures heading South going forward and from todayīs $2 level we could well see $1.50 by years end as the
"driving season" is over and Consumer Confidence is less than great.. Ofcourse a lower price for Gasoline at the pump can increase
demand yet the interesting thing to know is if this translates into more miles driven or just a consumer being able to actually
"fill" the tank in the SUV or Truck..
16/8 GMT 16.55 Oil Storage - VLCC Tankers
Taking into consideration the chartering of VLCCīs and other vessels there are about 80 mmbls and 120 mmbls of Crude currently
being stored at sea... In this I belive we are in the high end of the range. The main geographical areas for this storage are
in the US Gulf and Europe.. Add then to this the onshore terminal storage.. The reason - Weak Demand.
13/8 GMT 01.52 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Azurite
The one thing that I got wrong in this, and this then on information given is that the FDPSO came on-line faster than at first
thought.. The technical difficulties that made the start late were initially thought to be far more serious - yet there you are.
My opinion and assessments of the company as a whole have not changed. And as I wrote,
"Azurite if and when it gets going is just a reprive. Itīs all about Net Profit!"
13/8 GMT 01.43 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
I wrote,
"The trend is, and has been for some time up"..
I know I am cryptic in some of my posts and not so much in others but this company given that it is in the Heavy Oil sector
is debt-free and is cutting itīs Credit Limits... What more do you want? The people who run this project are the same that
made a lot of investors Millions - in TYK.
12/8 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Updated
Crude + 2.5 (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.0 (API - 2.3 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.8 (API + 1.6 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories are still about 13% above last year..
Total Petroleum Demand is still about - 3.0% below last year..
11/8 GMT 00.43 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq
Keep more than one eye on this one going forward.. Thought that "that" which is going to happen would have done so already,
but some things take time..
11/8 GMT 00.30 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
The trend is, and has been for some time up..
6/8 GMT 04.02 China - Power Output
Power output in China grew by 4.21% yoy in July to 348.49 billion kilowatt hours.. Yet only by 0.7% from June of this year.
There was however a 10.3% decline in power output in Shanghai and a 6.2% decrease in Jiangsu in the final days of July....
As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of Chinas power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key
economic indicator...
4/8 GMT 00.46 OPEC
OPECīs production quota was set in November 2008 at 24.85 mmbopd. The current OPEC production comes in at 28.39 mmbopd,
this then despite low demand and a HUGE storage of Crude in pretty much every bucket that is available, and VLCCīs and terminals
etc.. At the same time Iraq is producing about 2.7 mmbopd and exporting over 2.0 mmbopd for the first time since the war and looks
set to be able to increase this in the short term. "The OPEC quota does not include Iraq..." Iraq the "Dark Horse" in this..
31/7 GMT 02.06 Saudi Arabia - Production Capacity
As I wrote about in June Saudi Arabia now has a production capacity of 12.5 mmbopd, and if you add the production from the
border region Neutral Zone with Kuwait the kingdom will soon be able to produce 13 mmbopd. Lotīs of spare production capacity
in respect to the current OPEC quota, about 5 mmbopd to be precise..
30/7 GMT 02.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
I wrote earlier on the 8/7,
"Itīs all about the Fundamentals and anyone who tells you different does simply not know what they are talking about.. OK itīs
also about the Technicals but 99% about the Fundamentals. The world is simply not buying the Oil that can support a price above
$50 at the moment and with the driving season coming to a close in the US and Distillates Inventories the way they are we are
going South on the contracts."
That yesterdays build in US inventory numbers "surprised" the market is just silly, what it did was to give the market a reason to
sell off the "fat" built into the contracts. We are moving into a period of ambivilance but the writing is on the wall, the contracts
are going to correct downward.. Ofcourse somewhat dependent on the Dollar moves but the Fundamentals just arenīt there for higher
oil prices.
28/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Updated
Crude + 5.1 (API + 4.1 mmbls)
Gasoline - 2.3 (API - 0.05 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.1 (API + 0.1 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.5
Refiners 84.6%
Imports of 10.0 mmbopd for Crude and 1.0 mmbopd for Gasoline with Refiners pulling back further. Lotīs of Oil in the market and
still weak Demand. Crude oil stocks are 10% above last years levels... Not news for a reader of this site..
Distillate Demand is the one to watch going into the winter season. And with storage flowing over it is going to take a long hard
winter to put a dent in the inventory numbers. Big problems for the refiners ahead...
29/7 GMT 00.14 Oil - The Contracts - CFTC - Oil Speculation
As expected there are considerations about the contract trade,
The U.S. must seriously consider strict position limits on energy markets to curb speculation, Commodity Futures Trading
Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said. This hearing is an opportunity to determine how speculative position limits could be
used to address excessive speculation, not how we can eliminate speculation, Gensler said today, opening the first of three
days of meetings the agency is holding on whether to restrict the volume of trading.
The fact is that the volume of contracts traded makes it fairly "easy" for one major player like a hedge fund, pension fund etc
to "run" the market. Just a new adjustment to a new market, much like "Flash Trading" in Shares.... Trade still goes ON!! The
CFTC does have a point.. The oil industry on the other hand sayīs that $149.50 WTI last year was based on Fundamentals... Yeah
not so much I think...
28/7 GMT 23.20 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 4.1 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 0.05 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 0.1 mmbls)
27/7 GMT 01.02 USA - VIX Index
26/7 GMT 14.05 USA - VIX Index
I wrote earlier,
"The Index is trailing at 25 while the futures are at between 27.5 and 29... Just a reminder that prior to the Lehman Bros
collapse the Index did trade at 25. For those who do not know the lower the VIX Index the lower the fear in the marketplace
as far as Puts and Calls are concerned for Options and a few other bits....
Yet from extreme lows or highs the X-Factor does occur! And amongst the smart money the feeling of "X" is growing.."
25/7 GMT 00.47 Australia - Football - The Manly Sea Eagles
Great game and great win against the Newcastle Knights.. Fifth place in the standings!
24/7 GMT 03.30 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - The End Game? - Corrected
Things are really going from Bad to Worse for this oiler. Gita was as I have written before "Dry", plugged and abandoned.
In this even if my information was totally wrong, which it wasnīt BTW, it would take years to develop the "dry" find.
And the project cost would be monumental. Aseng in Equatorial Guinea with Pares 6.25% share is going to cost the company about
650 million SEK just to play and thats before the running costs kick in like the rent for the FPSO vessel etc. Pares estimated
share of the production is about 5 to 7 mmmbls, total. Do the maths not much net profit here. And production is 2 to 3 years away!
The Correction.. I wrote "Congo" instead of Equatorial Guinea...
Azurite the great Production Hope for the company is not going to start this year. And again this project has huge costs..
So itīs back to Didon which is declining in production by about 500 bopd every quarter. 8.200 bopd last quarter..
With as I wrote before, the company has a Debt to Asset structure that is beyond belife and is in serious need of Cash yet
Ulrik Jansson in the above statement tells all and sundry that the company could produce 20.000 bopd but does not want to
do so.... *G* Letīs not even talk about the fact that the banks forced Pare to sell the Norweigan assets to cover outstanding
loans...
It is going to cost Pare about 2 Billion SEK over the next few years just to get a seat at the table.. Azurite if and when it
gets going is just a reprive. Itīs all about Net Profit! Where "Did" all those previous profits go?
Look for many more Rights Issues... Fleece the Sheep!
This site has never, would never and will never own a single share in this company - A Greywolf note
22/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 1.8 (API + 3.1 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.8 (API + 1.3 mmbls)
Distillates + 1.2 (API + 1.5 mmbls)
Refiners 85.8% - 2.0%
Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.9
22/7 GMT 00.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API + 3.1 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 1.3 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.5 mmbls)
Again itīs all about Demand and US Total Petroleum Demand is at the 1990 level... Look for the
contracts to drop if the DOE report follows the pattern. Prime Time for Gasoline Demand is fast coming to an end.
21/7 GMT 12.24 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway
The NPSA has given the green light for production to start at Volund in August.. Volund is expected to have an output
of between 20.000 to 40.000 bopd.. Lupe holds a 35% share..
See I told you there would be more... *G*
21/7 GMT 07.32 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
Well it did not take more than a few hours for a whole plethora of good news to hit the airwaves.. More to come..
21/7 GMT 02.58 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
You know when things go Real Quiet around a company, especially in the Lundin Sphere.... Just a casual reflection. *G*
18/7 GMT 02.02 Iraq - Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - A Slight Problem..
Due to political posturing by the Iraqi Government DNO has not as yet received any payment for oil produced.
This one is worth watching!
17/7 GMT 03.41 China - Power Output
China's power generation in June increased 5.2% from a year earlier. Expected increase was 2.3%. This was the first increase
since October 2008. Weather factors could be a major part of the increase, yet also increased economic activity.
15/7 GMT 15.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Updated
Crude - 2.8 mmbls (API - 1.2 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls (API - 0.07 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.6 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls)
14/7 GMT 17.28 Iraq - Oil Production Increase
An ambitious plan has been drawn up to raise Iraq's oil production to 6.0 mmbopd by a deadline of 2017, according to
Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki. Iraq needs European capital and experts for the rebuilding process the Premier went on to say at
the Eastern European Gas conference in Ankara.
9/7 GMT 03.38 Oil - The Contracts - CFTC - Oil Speculation
With the CFTC in the US considering measures to stop speculation in the Contracts you have to think awhile and even as a
Free Market Capitalist I do have to agree that there is some measure of truth to the thought that speculation drives the oil
price.. You think? Ofcourse there is!
Yet before the Peak Oil CRAZIES and the Man Made Global Climate Change MORONS the speculation in the oil contracts were within the
limits of what could be risk/reward investing. Does the CFTC have a point? Yes, especially as Oil has become even more political, if
possible and $147.50 Crude a la 2008 was just madness. An interesting debate ahead I suspect...
8/7 GMT 22.54 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
Itīs all about the Fundamentals and anyone who tells you different does simply not know what they are talking about.. OK itīs also
about the Technicals but 99% about the Fundamentals. The world is simply not buying the Oil that can support a price above $50 at the
moment and with the driving season coming to a close in the US and Distillates Inventories the way they are we are going South on
the contracts. Would it not be nice if the EU could post supply/demand stats...!? Never going to happen...
Note the cross-over of 50 MA and 200 MA...
8/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 2.9 (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.9 (API + 0.8 mmbls)
Distillates + 3.7 (API + 3.4 mmbls)
Refiners 83.6%
Total Petroleum Inventories + 13.7 mmbls
Total Oil Demand 18.4 mmbopd - 6.0% yoy
Demand, demand, demand I have been saying this for more than a year. Itīs the Demand Stupid! And with the Obama administration
talking a "second stimulus package" and Global Demand for Oil falling itīs again all about Demand!!
8/7 GMT 00.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.8 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 3.4 mmbls)
2/7 GMT 22.11 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM
Interesting things afoot with Atlas Copco... They are way interested!
2/7 GMT 21.57 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Q2 Report
I had actually missed this latest "Ponzi Gem" from Ulrik Jansson...
"12.000 fat per dag är en vald nivå för att optimera värdet av
intjäningen från fältet över tiden. Bolaget skulle kunna
producera 20.000 fat om dagen idag om de ville men det skulle
leda till en snabbare produktionsnedgång på sikt.
"Nu går vi i den takten som vi är väldigt nöjda med. Det är
en avvägning mellan produktion idag och produktion om 4-5 år. Vi
kan producera 20.000 fat om vi vill, men det vill vi inte. Vi
vill ha en produktion som ger oss en lång och stadig produktion
under fältets livstid", säger Ulrik Jansson."
The company has a Debt to Asset structure that is beyond belife and is in serious need of Cash yet Ulrik Jansson in the
above statement tells all and sundry that the company could produce 20.000 bopd but does not want to do so.... *G*
So it is producing only 11.000 bopd. This despite the fact that it could only "own up" to producing 8.200 bopd in Q2.
1/7 GMT 22.37 China - Power Output
I wrote earlier,
"China's power output, a key barometer of industrial activity fell -1.3% yoy in March and fell a further -3.55% in April.
For May the fall came in at -3.54%."
It now looks like the first 5 months drop will come in at - 4.0% yoy. Yet June Output is expected to grow by 2.3%..
Watch this space...
1/7 GMT 21.51 USA - VIX Index
The Index is trailing at 25 while the futures are at between 27.5 and 29... Just a reminder that prior to the Lehman Bros
collapse the Index did trade at 25. For those who do not know the lower the VIX Index the lower the fear in the marketplace
as far as Puts and Calls are concerned for Options and a few other bits....
Yet from extreme lows or highs the - X-Factor does occur! And amongst the smart money the feeling of "X" is growing..
With the US market on holiday Friday things get real interesting...
There are also ofcourse the Fundamentals....
1/7 GMT 17.15 OPEC
"Oil markets oversupplied, demand weak, says Kuwait.. Kuwait's oil minister said on Wednesday that oil markets are
oversupplied and demand is weak, and he expressed doubt that OPEC would raise output in the near future. He also said
Kuwait would like to see closer compliance from OPEC producers with agreed output cuts."
Yeah good luck with that one! With oil prices in the late $60īs to early $70īs anyone producing oil today is going to
produce as much as they can, with the exceptions of the leading OPEC members... There are no Fundamentals for this oil
price, but commodities are the darlings of the speculators so - letīs make some money. The fundamentals again just arenīt
there for this level, but what the hey!
1/7 GMT 17.01 Oil USA - Crude Demand
There are three main holidays in the US when Demand for Gasoline is of foremost interest. Memorial Day in May,
Columbus Day ie 4th of July and Labour Day in September and in 2009 it is the 7th of September. Labour Day is really
past the "Driving Season". In this stats from the FHWA are worth watching even if they are laging indicators as to
the milage driven during any month. The Total Petroleum Inventories are 14.0% above last years storage level.....
Actual Crude Demand is - 6.0% below last year and this at a time when Gasoline cost about $4 a Gallon.. think on it..
Refiners are running operations about - 5.0% below a normal level for the year. This due to Crack Spreads and Low Demand.
Distillate Demand is about - 10.0% below last year at a time when Heating Oil prices were anything but low... The US demand
for oil is simply down and it is not due to a lack of Oil in The World as Imports this year are more than 2 mmbopd below
last years level and low on a historical front.
So again The US is using less Oil and the world is not running out of Oil. Again...
1/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 3.7 (API - 6.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.3 (API + 0.2 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.9 (API + 0.7 mmbls)
Refiners 87.0%
Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.4 mmbls + 9.0% yoy
The total inventory number is really + 13.5% yoy as the SPR stocks of Distillate in the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve are
a contenious inventory.
1/7 GMT 00.34 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude (API - 6.8 mmbls)
Gasoline (API + 0.2 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 0.7 mmbls)
July 4th weekend coming up... Crucial for the Demand numbers!
30/6 GMT 00.47 Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - Iraq
I did write,
"15/6 GMT 05.39 Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - Iraq
Addax the first one out on the market for a serious bid...
You see how it pays to read this site, and remember what was written...."
There are more Chinese Oil Companies with Big Bucks than just Sinopec... Heritage is the next bet...
24/6 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 3.8 mmbls (API - 0.07 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.9 mmbls (API + 3.7 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.1 mmbls (API + 2.3 mmbls)
Refiners were back online with 87% output, hence the draw in Crude storage. Still Demand for all Petroleum Products is
9% below last year...
22/6 GMT 22.56 The Market
"Again as I wrote earlier check the VIX Index... The Correction is out there looming." In this closer and closer...
17/6 GMT 07.46 The Market
Friday will be interesting with Quadruple Witching in the US... Again as I wrote earlier check the VIX Index... The
Correction is out there looming.
17/6 GMT 01.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 3.9 mmbls (API - 1.3 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.4 mmbls (API + 2.1 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.3 mmbls (API + 0.9 mmbls)
A fairly bearish report as Gasoline stocks were expected to be lower or flat.. Note again that the DOE and API use
different criteria as to their reporting.
16/6 GMT 02.58 Central Banks - Australia RBA
"The Reserve Bank of Australia saw no `pressing needī to cut interest rates at its recent monthly policy meeting
given signs of stabilisation at home and abroad" - According to minutes of its June policy meeting..
Letīs just let this one sit for a month or two...
16/6 GMT 02.55 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - In Lieu of Current Events
A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to investors from their own money or money
paid by subsequent investors rather than from any actual profit earned. The Ponzi scheme usually offers returns that
other investments cannot guarantee in order to entice new investors, in the form of short-term returns that are either
abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays
requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going.
15/6 GMT 07.5 Asia - Exports
Unless Asian exporters start seeing export gains in the coming months leading up to Xmas etc then we are in for a ride.
Unless Wallmart and the rest start ordering more T-shirts, toys, electrical goods etc fairly soon well then the consumer
driven Asians are basically screwed. Domestic Asian growth is one thing but that is for the most part paid for by exports
and as far as Santa Claus is concerned he should be ordering toys for those who have been nice, yesterday.
If you in this look at the Import numbers for the necessary resources well then you may find a clue to as to the relativ
numbers...
15/6 GMT 05.42 The Globe - The MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence
Which gauges likely consumer confidence over the next six months, fell from 49 points to 24 points, its lowest score
in the 17 year history of the survey... The index was at 42.8 this time last year and has an historical average of 56.1
The index is calculated with zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral.
15/6 GMT 05.41 China
Foreign direct investment in May came in at $6.4 billion, - 17.8% year-on-year
The number of new approved foreign companies reached 1.649, - 32% year-on-year
The worst numbers since 1998.
15/6 GMT 05.39 Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - Iraq
Addax the first one out on the market for a serious bid...
You see how it pays to read this site, and remember what was written....
12/6 GMT 11.15 OPEC
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut again its forecast for world oil consumption for 2009, seeing
a year-on-year fall of 1.62 mmbopd to 83.8 mmbopd.
12/6 GMT 01.58 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
So here we are again. Speculation devoid of any base in the fundamentals is driving the price of Crude into the $75 range
and the only thing that will come out of this is short term gain and a longer term Global Recession.
Yet there we are... Perhaps time to make the contracts bound to actual physical delivery of the commodity..
In this it should be stated again that I am a Pure Market Capitalist and I both play the market but also protect it as
there is no other alternative in my book. In this the out-of-balance movements during the last few years is a worry and
a potential destabiliser to the market place. Just take $147.50 WTI for instance, not so much as a fundamental twig to
build on...
12/6 GMT 01.55 Saudi Arabia - The Khurais field
The Saudis have begun production from the 1.2 mmbopd Khurais field. This then would bring the total output of The Kingdom
to 12.5 mmbopd. Along with the additional crude which is of the quality sought by refiners for its easy conversion into
motor fuels the Khurais field will also produce 315 million cubic feet per day of sour gas and 70.000 bopd of natural gas
liquids. This then leaves The Kingdom with a spare capacity of about 4.5 mmbopd, taken into to consideration the current
OPEC quota.
11/6 GMT 02.38 The Oil Price going Forward - A look Backwards
I wrote,
20/6/05 The Oil Price going Forward..
$60 Oil - Big Warning!
-"There are no fundamentals for this price level even in "lala land"... I hear voices from the late 90īs...
"Donīt worry darling keep the Kristal coming me and the boyīs are big in the Oil Sector!"...
Itīs the IT boom all over, yet this is far worse as Oil is a real commodity.
You canīt beat the market for sure and contracts up at $60 are a sell or steal yet - who is going to keep
buying at these levels?
OK so the sky is not falling and the world keeps growing albeit at a smaller pace than expected but hey we still
got China and India... Global growth though is again revised down..
But donīt worry "Cause darling were in the Oil Sector!"..
Again where are the lines at filling stations and where are the Diesel Trucks stalled by the roadside for lack
of fuel? Where is the one single customer on this planet not getting the Hydrocarbon Product of his choice?
OK Nigeria is on the map and RDS shut a 67.000 bopd refinery in Texas and donīt forget itīs storm season in the
LOOP area of the US, yet this is always the case at this time of year.
So the question again is - is global demand as big as the market assumes? With pretty dicey statistics from most
of the world it comes down to perception. Whenever economies head into a crisis it is usually on a wave of
Perception. Housing, property, banking, IT etc are all sectors that have brought the market grief due to a Lack
of Clear Perception..
As stated before - "I am afraid that we are going to find ourselves in Q3/Q4
all dressed up and with nowhere to go"..."-
So did I buy the Hype? No! Just peruse the site to find out why.. Did I trade it? Hell yes. But did I buy it? No! The key
in all of this is what I wrote, -"Again where are the lines at filling stations and where are the Diesel Trucks stalled
by the roadside for lack of fuel? Where is the one single customer on this planet not getting the Hydrocarbon Product of
his choice?" So the question again is - is global demand as big as the market assumes? With pretty dicey statistics from
most of the world it comes down to perception. Whenever economies head into a crisis it is usually on a wave of Perception.
Housing, property, banking, IT etc are all sectors that have brought the market grief due to a Lack of Clear Perception.."-
The crisis we now are in did not drop out of the sky it was seen coming long ago at least by this site and it should have
happened a lot earlier but far too many had their heads in the sand... History boys and girls! With Oil at $73 and Demand
failing, faltering what do you think?
11/6 GMT 02.31 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq
The company is expanding nicelly...
11/6 GMT 02.30 Japan - GDP Growth
Q1 - 3.8%
Q1 - 14.2% yoy
10/6 GMT 22.18 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
10/6 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 4.4 mmbls (API - 6.0 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.6 mmbls (API + 0.03 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.3 mmbls (API + 0.02 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.7 mmbls + 8.8% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 18.3 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy
Low imports and steady refinery numbers call for a bullish report.. Yet itīs all about Demand and we are getting longer
in the tooth as for the driving season.. Itīs all about Demand.
5/6 GMT 03.27 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia
Do not forget the ongoing negotiations...
3/6 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 2.9 mmbls (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.2 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls)
Distillates + 1.6 mmbls (API + 3.4 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 15.1 mmbls + 9.1% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 18.2 mmbopd - 7.7% yoy
3/6 GMT 01.33 Australia - GDP Growth
Q1 + 0.4% as opposed to a - 0.6% contraction in Q4 2008..
3/6 GMT 01.30 China - Power Output
China's power output, a key barometer of industrial activity fell -1.3% yoy in March and fell a further -3.55% in April.
For May the fall came in at -3.54%.
1/6 GMT 22.22 Oil - OPEC - Production Quota
I did write on the 14/5,
"The news that OPEC is "boosting" itīs production is one of those ticker happenings that just flow by because all it
really means is that the Organisation is owning up to the "cheating" going on."
As it turns out OPEC increased oil production by 1.5% in May. The largest increase since 2007. And as per ususal
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar were the only OPEC members to produce less oil than their
respective targets during both April and May. Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria etc all produced above the quota due to the
higher market price for oil. With Demand still sluggish this could again saturate the market with Oil...
1/6 GMT 04.28 The Market
Given consideration to very many factors I feel the Equity Markets have come about as far as they will/would/should etc,
this time around. There is a growing sense of lethargy quickly coming over the horizon.
Case in point the VIX Index and other sundry Stuff..
31/5 GMT 17.35 DNO International - DNO:OBX - Iraq - Kurdistan
The oil firms developing the Taq Taq oil field in Iraq's northern Kurdish region expect to boost initial production
of 40.000 bopd to 60.000 bopd by November. The Taq Taq field, along with Tawke, will officially start pumping crude over
the next two days in a major breakthrough in a feud between the Arab Government in Baghdad and Kurds in their
semi-autonomous northern enclave over Iraq's oil wealth.
Starting Monday 1/6, Taq Taq will be able to produce 40.000 bopd but in October, at the latest November the production
will rise to 60.000 bopd. Tawke is set to start pumping 60.000 bopd.. The two fields are expected to reach a total
capacity of 250.000 bopd within a year and 1 mmbopd in the coming two to three years.
- See also Addax Petroleum - AXC:TO.
30/5 GMT 02.17 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - The Emperor's New Clothes
An emperor of a prosperous city who cares more about clothes than military pursuits or entertainment hires two
swindlers who promise him the finest suit of clothes from the most beautiful cloth. This cloth, they tell him, is
invisible to anyone who was either stupid or unfit for his position. The Emperor cannot see the non-existent cloth,
but pretends that he can for fear of appearing stupid; his ministers do the same. When the swindlers report that the
suit is finished, they dress him in mime. The Emperor then goes on a procession through the capital showing off his
new "clothes". During the course of the procession, a small child cries out, "But he has nothing on!" The crowd
realizes the child is telling the truth. The Emperor, however, holds his head high and continues the procession...
- Hans Christian Andersen, published 1837.
30/5 GMT 02.06 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Good volume... With the technical rebound I wrote about earlier this month taken care of there is scope for a new upturn
in the short term.
28/5 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude - 5.4 mmbls (API - 2.8 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.6 mmbls (API - 0.75 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.3 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.2 mmbls
Total Petroleum Demand 18.3 mmbopd - 7.3% yoy
28/5 GMT 01.42 The First Country Out of Recession
It is turning out to be a race between two of my favourite countries - Australia and the US, itīs a family thing!
Both of the Worlds most Capitalist Countries are in I would have to say a dead heat, Yet with as it turns out a slight
favouritism to Australia. Commodities is the name of the game in this play and when things turn around the OZ economy
is the one of comparative stability and this will only build in the face of increased commodity demand...
28/5 GMT 01.21 North Korea - Crossing the Rubicon
If the World does not make a stand against the 23 million lost souls of the DPRK and itīs 4― foot unstable
leader well then the Rubicon is traversed and history will say - You had your chance.
Given the caliber of the political leaders of today I hold very little confidence in that this will be resolved
in a way that history can note as a - They Ceased the Moment!
21/5 GMT 04.51 China - Economy - GDP Growth
Q1 saw GDP growth of 6.1%.. And it now looks like Q2 will be worse, in this 5% GDP growth is a "Recession" number as
far as the country is concerned. May is turning out to be a tough month and far too many have been far too positive
about Chinas ability to stem the tide of global economic weakness. As I have pointed to before...
20/5 GMT 01.54 Evolution - The Missing Link
Meet the ancestor! A 47 million year old human link revealed,
David Attenborough, the renowned British naturalist and broadcaster, said the "little creature is going to show us
our connection with all the rest of the mammals". "The link they would have said until now is missing... it is no
longer missing," he said. Ida gives a glimpse into a time when the world was just taking its present shape.
Dinosaurs were extinct, the Himalayas were forming and a huge range of mammals thrived in vast jungles.
According to the international team, Ida had suffered a badly broken wrist and this might have been her undoing.
The theory is that while drinking from the Messel lake she was overcome by Carbon Dioxide (CO2) fumes and fell in.
"Ida slipped into unconsciousness, was washed into the lake, and sank to the bottom, where the unique conditions
preserved her for 47 million years," a statement said.
20/5 GMT 01.52 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria
Again a worthy repost...
Especially as the Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "patients" are running the asylum.. In this it is interesting to note
that the EU elections are all about Climate Change.. An electorate well indoctrinated can be lead to any point of
the political compass and where better than Climate Change as it gives Politicians the chance to promise All and have
to be responsible for Nothing... Especially as most Climate Change Science is Politically Motivated ie read IPCCīs
made to order Crap!
"Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern
ice cap. Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming
experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes
in planetary climates could be a natural phenomena.".....
19/5 GMT 23.59 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
The API report,
Crude (API - 4.5 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 5.4 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 1.4 mmbls)
Letīs call it a Fairly Bullish Report, yet with the caveat about Demand, Crack Spreads and Refinery Fires...
19/5 GMT 23.56 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia
This will be a very good deal for Lupe and also the new Russian partner, far better than the one with Gazprom.
Who said you canīt do business in the Russian Oil Sector..? The Lundins long term strategy will again reap benefits
for the company and its shareholders..
18/5 GMT 21.26 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Updated
"There are more things afoot in the Lundin Group"...
This one will make your head spin... Luk...
15/5 GMT 11.02 EU - GDP Growth
I did say, "EU GDP numbers ainīt going to be pretty!"... And they were not.
EU GDP Growth Q1 compared to Q4 2008 - 2.5%
EU GDP Growth Q1 compared to Q1 2008 - 4.6%
EUīs largest economy Germany showed the 4th Quarter of negative growth,
Germany GDP Growth compared to Q4 2008 - 3.8%
Germany GDP Growth compared to Q1 2008 - 6.9%
14/5 GMT 04.04 Oil - OPEC - Production Quota
The news that OPEC is "boosting" itīs production is one of those ticker happenings that just flow by because all it
really means is that the Organisation is owning up to the "cheating" going on. Also with the Oil Price rising due to the
Dollar Effect they will take advantage of the situation. Especially as we are heading into to Northern Hemisphere,
"driving season" and all that is expected from it. Most Americans will be driving more because the price of Gasoline is
lower than last year, but they will be driving to the unemployment office and not on go anywhere "road trips". As for
Europe I guess most will take the buss... EU GDP numbers ainīt going to be pretty!
Towards the end of Q2 and into Q3 the real numbers on the "driving season" start to turn up and after 4th of July in
the US, well the economy still is not going to be much better...
13/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
The name of the Game is Demand... Total petroleum demand over the past four weeks averaged 18.2 mmbopd,
down by -8% from a year ago. Gasoline demand fell -1.2% from a year ago, Distillate fuel, which include diesel
and heating oil, dropped -14.1%, while Jet fuel consumption declined -10.3%.
The stats showed a build in Crude which is due in part to the fact that storage levels of Crude in the US are
nearing full capacity, also storing $60 oil is just bad business as the price drops going forward. Especially as the
demand for products is waining. The US is using less Oil is Again the simple salient Fact...
13/5 GMT 01.13 China - Crude Demand - Updated
Chinaīs demand for Oil in Q1 2009 was -6% below Q1 2008. The decline contrasts with an increase
of more than 8% in Oil demand for Q1 2008 versus Q1 2007.
2004 6.6 mmbopd
2005 6.4 mmbopd
2006 6.9 mmbopd
2007 7.5 mmbopd
2008 7.9 mmbopd
2009 7.4 mmbopd Q1 (actual)
On Tuesday the oil contracts rose because China imported 14% more oil in April, this was then equated with Demand. Two
different things, imports and demand have very little correlation in this. The number to watch is China's power output,
a key barometer of industrial activity, and it fell -1.3% year-on-year in March and is likely to have dropped
more than -4% in April... Note that Chinas export fell -23.7% in April and imports were down by -13%...
12/5 GMT 01.38 The Market - Equities
As a study of history shows "nothing is new under the sun".. Despite the late race across the equity world the facts
are as I have pointed to before out there. No growth across the planet.... Sell the rallies, the few that are left this
time around.
11/5 GMT 23.56 Iraq - Kurdistan - Oil Exports
Well as I thought letīs not get too comfortable with the news about future Oil Exports from the Kursdistan Region...
Iraq's oil ministry considers the contracts signed by Kurdish Regional Government with the international oil
companies illegitimate and illegal, Hussain al-Shahrastani said on Tuesday in an interview with the state-run
television of Iraqia. But Shahristani said that oil extracted by these companies will be collected and marketed by his
ministry and all revenues will be sent into the federal accounts.
Kurdistan Regional Government and the Ministry of Oil in Baghdad do how differing views on the longivity of the export
period and I belive there will be more "snags" going forward.. All the more reason to belive that there are larger
players waiting to get a hold of those who have been fortunate to make large finds..
10/5 GMT 19.45 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq
Not to be premature but it now seems that The Kurdish region of Iraq will be able to export oil... There have been rumours
flying around about this for a long while, long.. Yet if the latest "small note from the Iraqi Oil Ministry" is to be
believed DNO and Addax both old friends of the readers of this site will be able to export oil from the Taq Taq and
Tawke fieldīs.
Yet with knowledge of the very complicated decision structures in Iraq, lets put this one in the "best news yet" column.
Both DNO and Addax should see a healthy trade on the news... And Heritage..
8/5 GMT 03.42 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
No denying there are signals in the market that things have changed not necessarily for the better but there are signs,
or are there? The price of Crude has jumped by 25% of late while major Indexes have done less than half that.
The Wiltshire 5000 Index for instance is fairly flat in the same time frame. A lower Dollar helps things move along but
still the inventory levels are at 1990īs levels... Why? Well mostly because Supply is running way over Demand as it has
done for many years! This then despite the Moronic $147 WTI level of last year..
The World is Still not Running out of Oil!!
I would view the early signs with much sceptisism and trade accordingly...
7/5 GMT 23.29 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq
I first wrote about this company in July of 2006 and despite the upturn in the stock of late this one can and will go far.
As long as the politics of the Kurdish Region does not get in the way, whis is a risk. But one more than well worth
taking... I do in this see a suitor coming along in the not too distant future..
6/5 GMT 19.36 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq
The Canadian oil company has struck a giant oilfield in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq that may contain
up to 3 billion barrels of recoverable crude. Heritage estimated that the Miran West structure contained between
2.3 billion and 4.2 billion barrels of oil in the ground, of which between 50% to 70% may be recoverable. The oil
is medium-heavy crude with a low sulphur content. The company has 255.107.482 outstanding shares, fully diluted.
Look for say the Chinese to have a good hard look at this company as it is too small to run this field on itīs own...
1/5 GMT 02.32 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Technical rebound in the offering...
1/5 GMT 00.03 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - New Blocks
Barent Sea 533 7219/12, 7220/10 - 20%
Norwegian Sea 519 6201/11, 6201/128 - 40% (operator)
28/4 GMT 23.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
The API report,
Crude (API + 4.6 mmbls)
Gasoline (API - 2.6 mmbls)
Distillates (API + 2.6 mmbls)
I would say this report is bearish on balance... Until the DOE numbers come out.
28/4 GMT 15.56 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Block 5B
The company is considering itīs options in regards to Block 5B due to the poor results from the test-drills. I long
held the belife that this block should have been sold earlier. It is time to move on...
28/4 GMT 03.04 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Nice run... Increased production.. OK so the PP diluted the stock to 231.341.305 shares. Yet the uptick is impressive.
A bit thin on the volume though...
28/4 GMT 01.51 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
"The former chairman of the Board Jan Kvarnström and the Director Ulrik Jansson have both announced that they do not
stand for re-election."
You must know where this train wreck is heading...
28/4 GMT 01.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
The contracts fall due to an outbreak of Swine Flu? What ever happened to Demand larger than Supply and lets not forget
the real "crazies" the Peak Oil Sect? Sarcasm!?
By the way Peak Oil is now supposed to have happened in August of 2008.. And I thought it was in September of 2005...
Delays ainīt that the way of the World today... *G*
Before everyone getīs their knickers in a twist I am more than well aware of what drives the Oil Price at the moment, read
US dollar etc yet I just ponder the weight given to analysts sometimes, as you do from time to time...
27/4 GMT 03.34 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - ONGC Videsh Ltd
The Congress-led UPA government has written off ONGCs $89m investment in 5B.
In this ONGC has/had a 23.5% stake in the project.
27/4 GMT 03.02 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - A Reminder
Still there are investors and analysts out there in the market that can not understand the simple fact that equity markets
are the drivers of the commodities and in this of the greatest importance - Oil! Look at the demand numbers, look at the
projected demand numbers albeit a shaky ground to base your analysis on as stated before... Itīs human nature to be hopefull
and look forward but you also have to look at the fundamentals and in this the current equity market is not much to build a
sustainable future on.
26/4 GMT 22.44 Oil - Iran - Band-e-Karkheh
Iran has discovered a new oil layer and a gas field in the southwest and central parts of the country. The new oil layer
forms part of the Band-e-Karkheh oil field northwest of Ahvaz, capital of Iran's oil-rich southwestern province of Khuzestan.
The oil field's estimated reserves have increased to 4.5 billion barrels with the discovery of the new layer. Also a new gas
field with an estimated reserve of some 169.8 billion cubic meters was also discovered in the central province of Fars..
25/4 AEST 00.01 Australia - Anzac Day
Lest We Forget..
24/4 GMT 01.47 Oil - OPEC - Saudi Arabia
The Saudiīs are currently producing around 7.8 mmbopd, with about 2.5 mmbopd in spare capacity.. The Saudi oil
exports to the US are at a 13 year low.. At the same time US storage of Crude is at a 19 year high.
24/4 GMT 01.13 Australia - Football - The Manly Sea Eagles
Sat 25 Apr 7.30 PM AEST Dairy Farmers Stadium. I am as sure as hell watching this one..
VS 
23/4 GMT 19.57 China - Crude Demand
Chinaīs demand for Oil in Q1 2009 was -5% below Q1 2008. The decline contrasts with an increase
of more than 8% in Oil demand for Q1 2008 versus Q1 2007.
2004 6.6 mmbopd
2005 6.4 mmbopd
2006 6.9 mmbopd
2007 7.5 mmbopd
2008 7.9 mmbopd
2009 7.5 mmbopd Q1
23/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Natural Gas + 46 Bcf
Supplies are 23% higher than the five-year average.. Gas consumption by factories may drop -7.4% this year as
the recession cuts demand, yet the problem is that future demand is hard to project.
22/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 3.9 mmbls (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.8 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.7 mmbls (API + 0.5 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 11.3 mmbls
22/4 GMT 02.33 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
The stock market or rather the sentiment in the stock market is driving commodities and none more so than Oil. A fragile
alliance and a tricky one to trade as both are driven not by fundamentals but rather by far more esoteric factors.
22/4 GMT 01.35 Japan - Exports
Japanese exports dropped 16.4% year on year to 71.1 trillion yen in March.
21/4 GMT 04.39 Central Banks - Australia RBA
Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA governor Glenn Stevens says the Australian economy is in recession. He says it is very rare
for Australia to escape an international downturn and that there is no precedent for avoiding one of the size currently
being suffered by virtually all the nation's trading partners, "Whether or not the next GDP statistic, due in early June,
shows another decline, I think the reasonable person, looking at all the information available now, would come to the
conclusion that the Australian economy, too, is in recession." You Think!?....
This then seen in the perspective of comments made by Mr Kevin Rudd on the 17/9, 2008..
21/4 GMT 02.08 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Gita
"Hydrocarbons ainīt Oil or Gas, they are just that Hydrocarbons".
Gita - 1X plugged and abandoned. Dry!
Exploration and Appraisal
Wells
|
Licensee /
Licence |
Name /
Number |
Drilling
Rig /
Operator |
Drilling
Position Coordinates |
Block |
Type
/ Remark |
Spudded
/ Completed |
| A.P.
Møller |
Gita-1X |
Ensco 101 |
N: 56°15'42'' |
5604/22 |
Exploration |
16-12-2008 |
| 9/95 |
5604/22-5 |
Mærsk Olie og Gas AS |
E: 04°17'14'' |
|
|
21-04-2009 |
21/4 GMT 01.23 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
Expiration for the May contracts on Tuesday made for exciting trade with a huge drop of almost 9% on Monday, I guess
nobody wants to take delivery of physical Oil. Wonder why!? Well it could be because demand is still falling and storage
is still rising, I know call me crazy but there you are.
The new front month contract June09 ended the day at $48.51 down - 7.5%. In this I see a return down towards the low $40īs
again as the first step and then, well thatīs the tricky part as the Q1 numbers on a lot of fronts are coming to and end
and as I see it Q1 is going to be hard to beat for most if not all sectors for the rest of the year.
19/4 GMT 23.25 The Americas - Oil
Hugo Cahvez is one of the most voiciferous critics of the US at the same time Bolivar Venezuela owns 100% of Citgo..
With about 1.500 gas stations across the US and lotīs of nice big terminals and refineries.. Just a reminder that talk
is one thing...
19/4 GMT 23.20 Sweden - A Legal System for Hire - Updated
What a nasty, grubby little piece of politized jurisprudence the Swedish legal system handed down today in regards
to The Pirate Bay convictions.
Especially as there is no conclusive empirical evidence that filesharing actually financially hurts the Entertainment
Industry. I would like to see the same Industry take on the huge producers of Bootlegged CDīs, DVDīs and Games in China..
By the way if you want to do some filesharing just do a search on Google or Yahoo etc, and you will promptly find all the
information on how and where to do it... Check out - One Swarm!!
From an Investors Perspective, which after-all this site is about. I would be seriously worried about an Industry like
the Enterainment Industry and how out of touch with reality they seem to be. From large companies to individual artists
donīt you get it? Change your way of doing business!
Well anyway - Back to Oil!
16/4 GMT 03.41 China - Q1 GDP Growth
As expected again, GDP Growth is still falling and Q1 saw a growth of 6.1%. This then down from 6.8% in Q4.
In comparison to the rest of the World a 5% GDP growth for China is as pointed to before virtually - Recession...
16/4 GMT 02.55 The Economy - USA - EU and the Rest
Decoupling was the word at the start of the Economic Downturn ie that the problem of a failing economy was the USAīs
problem and that Asia and Europe would not be pulled down by the decline. The proponents of this theory with their
last breath said Asia will not be affected.... Well they were all wrong and you are welcome to peruse the site on my
thoughts about this "theory".. Anyway.
The US by virtue of itīs Economic System is going to come out of this Crisis way ahead of the rest and this is going
to create more than a few problems as the EU in particular is way behind on the timeline and Markets are going to have
to adjust to the divergens. This divergens or rather imbalance is going to create some difficult problems for investors
going forward as the US numbers are not going to be on par with non-US regions.
Or I could be very wrong about this and the US will lead the World out of this mess along the same line it lead it into
it. One thought, First negative Yearly CPI number in the US since 1955. Look where Japan has been for the last 12 years..
Deflation...
Interesting times....
16/4 GMT 02.36 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Gita
Hydrocarbons ainīt Oil or Gas, they are just that Hydrocarbons. An empty Oil Barrel contains Hydrocarbons but
the barrel is still Empty. Just a Cautionary Note.
15/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 5.6 mmbls (API + 6.9 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.9 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API + 0.09 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.2 mmbls
Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd
Refineries 80.4%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 0.4% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 6.7% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 18.7 mmbopd - 5.6% yoy
15/4 GMT 11.43 Oil - OPEC - Demand
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand this year for an eighth
successive month as the economic slowdown in the worlds biggest oil consumers worsens.
The estimate for 2009 global demand was lowered by 0.43 mmbopd to 84.18 mmbopd, the producer group said.
Demand will contract by 1.37 mmbopd this year, or 1.6%. Thats slightly more than North Africas biggest oil
supplier Algeria produces. OPEC forecast a decline of 1.2% last month.
The world economic recession continues to erode oil demand growth, particularly in the U.S., Japan and China, the
groups secretariat said in its monthly oil market report today. Demand in industrialized countries will fall this
year and developing economies are likely to see only minor growth.
14/4 GMT 23.55 Oil - IEA - Demand
So the IEA is now forecasting global demand this year at 83.4 mmbopd, which is 2.4 mmbopd below the 2008 level....
This is far from News for the reader of this site and I belive the IEA is again optimistic in itīs forecast. The reason
being that the full effect of the economic downturn has yet to be felt, especially in Asian along with the EU region.
7/4 GMT 5.50 Central Banks - Australia RBA
The RBA cut the official cash rate to a 49 year low of 3%, down by 0.25%. Look for a further cut of the same dignity at
the next meeting..
7/4 GMT 03.16 Australia - Football - The Manly Sea Eagles
Come on Guys are you going to let Russell Crowes limp wristed Bunnies lead the League!?
7/4 GMT 00.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - StatoilHydro
Embrace the significance of the deal and try see where this is going to go in the Future. The Barents Sea...
This is Big Boys Club.
7/4 GMT 00.05 The Market
Again donīt be fooled by the last few days upturn in the market as there are No Fundamentals for the optimism. I know I
sound like a broken record but there you are. The Q1 Reports are going to flood the airwaves going forward and I do not
foresee any outstanding sunshine stories being revealed.
3/4 GMT 06.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - StatoilHydro
I did say things were afoot for Lundin...
Lundin Petroleum will transfer to StatoilHydro a 30% licence interest in Production Licences 359 and 410, and a
10% interest in Production Licence 409 located in the GLA, north of the Sleipner field, Norway. StatoilHydro
operates the nearby Sleipner and Grane platforms which are production facilities for oil and gas on the Norwegian
continental shelf.
StatoilHydro will pay a disproportionate share of the costs related to the 3D seismic programme to be carried out for
PL359 and PL410 along with the one well to be drilled in each of the two licences. For PL409 StatoilHydro will enter
at ground terms. Lundin Petroleum will remain operator of all of these Production Licences and will remain the key player
in the GLA, along with StatoilHydro. In addition to these farmout arrangements, a rig swap has been agreed where
Lundin Petroleum has been given the option to utilize two drill slots on a Barents Sea rig in exchange for two drill
slots in the North Sea.
Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments: "We are very pleased to be working closely with
StatoilHydro in the Greater Luno Area. We believe that following the discovery of the Luno field the area has the
potential to be a major new producing area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. This transaction creates a joint
ownership in the most important licences in the Greater Luno Area in order to secure a timely development of the area."
3/4 GMT 03.13 The Market
Bear Market Rallies when they fail are very Bloddy Downturns and on the face of it the latest rally was nothing more
than a Bear Market Rally induced by the politics of whishfull thinking. I could be very wrong in this but I doubt it!
Trade the rally but donīt expect this to be the turn up from the bottom.
3/4 GMT 03.09 G20 - The New World Order
So a few Trillion here and a few Trillion there. One Trillion Dollars to the IMF an organisation Barack Obama sayīs
needs to be "more effective and productive". Yeah I always like to give a Trillion Dollars to organisations that need
to improve their mandate...
The Euro-Capitalists/Socialists got their way with more regulation, regulation and regulation. Tax havens are to be put
under the microscope so I guess France is going to invade Switzerland.. Of the $5, $6 or was it $8 Trillion most of the
package is "political intentions" coupled with the actions already taken. G20 Fluff!
2/4 GMT 04.17 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
The salient point in all of the stats is the fact that despite low refinery output due to work-overs Gasoline storage
increased again on Weak Demand! Gasoline is from now on the primary driver of the Crude price as we are heading into the
US Driving Season...
1/4 GMT 03.53 The Market
As in all severe down-turns in the Market you need a bottom and in 2001-2002 we were close to getting a real capitulation
yet it never happened, which is why the reasons behind a 2009-2010 real bloodbath gain momentum.
The Market at large has yet to reach levels not thought possible, or can Information save the collective bacon.? This
Recession/Depression is the first of itīs kind as it is a 24/7 News affair and the amount of information available to the
individual investor has never been greater. Will this save us from the Economic Cycle - I think Not.
1/4 GMT 02.06 Japan - Tankan Report
The business sentiment index for large manufacturers was - 58 for Q1, 2009 this then down from - 24. This is on a level
in parity to the early 1970īs... The worlds second largest economy is in dire straits and it is time for a great deal of
the market to get itīs collective head out of the sand. Mainly because this is not the bottom of the cycle... Far from it!
Asia is pretty much all about Exports and those numbers are still heading down...
A similar report from China would show pretty much the same confidence level if not worse, happily the Chinese State
can put market moving stats like these in the backroom...
31/3 GMT 01.34 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
The big Drop! With the economy still getting worse and companies like GM and Chrysler given 60 days to get it together
or go into Chapter 11, like they should have done long ago the price of Crude is not going to go up. $40 seems to be a
pivot point but we are heading into to Q2 a weak period for oil anyhow so a revisit of the $30īs is not off the cards.
30/3 GMT 08.33 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL301
Talisman and Lundin Petroleum go way back in so far as business relationships go and for Lupe to farm into PL301 to the
tune of 40% is smart business for both parties. Lupes ongoing operations in PL148 contains oil and the continuation into
PL301 is a matter of geological data, experience and again just plain good business.
There are more things afoot in the Lundin Group...
30/3 GMT 05.47 The World - G20 Meeting
Donīt expect anything more than Fluff from this group.. They will make about as much sense as the Morons demonstrating
outside the venue.
30/3 GMT 05.44 The Lundin Group
Look for movement in this group in the not too distant future... In this - The Oil Sector.
26/3 GMT 02.55 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Yet again the build in Crude continous. At a 16 year high... As for the products itīs all about margins and Gasoline
is not making the refiners any money today hence the low refinery output. US demand for Petroleum is -4% below last year
while stocks are at the 1993 level. Easy case to make for the argument that demand is still falling and will continue to
do so going into Q2, a period whis is lean at best.
24/3 GMT 23.44 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at 14.30
The API reported on Tuesday evening,
Crude + 4.7 mmbls
Gasoline - 0.8 mmbls
Distillates - 1.6 mmbls
24/3 GMT 01.01 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
The global demand for Oil has not increased infact it is doing just the opposite and with this in mind the recent rally
in oil while welcome tradingwise is precarious. A falling dollar and "hope and please more hope" that the US financial
packages are going to work are driving the price. A weak foundation to build a sustained rally on, very weak.
I donīt belive the rally to be more than a deep Bear Market rally. The worry is that this leads to speculation gone mad
as per 2008 and the oil price just keeps going up and killing every part of the economy. Trade it while it lasts but I
see no fundamental reasons for this rally, none at all.
21/3 GMT 03.49 USA - Barack Obama
Sorry! But a sitting President of the USA does not do the tonight show circuit. Especially as the same sitting President
is still in the - "I am Running for the Presidency" - mode...
20/3 GMT 03.25 Global Economic Downturn - Recession
This site touched on this "happening" as early as 2007, given seen mainly through the eyes of Global Oil Demand but this
was expanded to cover the whole economy. I am amazed that so few saw this downturn coming and still are having problems
understanding the depth of itīs nature... This ainīt over by a long shot.
20/3 GMT 03.17 Bonuses
Pretty much every politician who can walk and chew gum at the same time is out on the stump lambasting Bonuses, many as it
turns out are paid out by companies very much part of the political system. Executive bonuses are a problem and should be
tied to success not just massaging the numbers but I think everyone can agree that they are small potatoes compared to
the overall loss suffered by companies that should have been run by people who were supposed to know what the hell they
were doing.....
18/3 GMT 02.31 Sweden - Wolf
The Swedish Wolf Population has seen an increase according to the latest survey.. Well that is very heartening to read
but I know that at least 16 Wolfs have been illegally shot during the past winter with 12 of these in a particular area...
The problem of inbreeding and it`s consequences is apparently not solely a Wolf problem...!
According to this site anyone caught illegally shoting a Wolf and burying it,
as is the practice should him/herself suffer the same fate.
Yet with the Caveat - Buried Alive!!
18/3 GMT 02.19 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at 14.30
Expected is,
Crude + 3.0 mmbls
Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls
Distillates + 0.8 mmbls
Refineries 82.2%
18/3 GMT 00.15 Iran - UK
I note with amusement that yet another British Prime Minister is hastening down the apeacement road in regards to
a Power Grab by saying that it is the right of every nation to have Nuclear Energy...
Sounds a lot like "Peace in our time"....
OK so there are deeper and darker issues afoot like Afghanistan where the US/UK and rest need assistance and what price
to pay for Iranian help but for a little Nuclear Power..? Boyz and Girlz read your history..
18/3 GMT 00.14 Greywolf Fund
I will be posting the stocks included in the "tracking fund" shortly.
16/3 GMT 02.59 Oil - OPEC
I wrote earlier,
"Well as expected and which is also history when it comes to OPEC the agreed on cuts are not being followed.. Big Surprise!
Look for more cheating going forward as the Demand situation deteriorates further."
OPECīs hands are tied as if they would cut even if only to bring the over-production into line it would hurt the global
economy even more... OPEC like the rest are just going to have to come to terms with the fact that the world is not running
out of oil and that demand is going to fall going forward.. Have you heard that from this site before!? Yes you have for
over two years and then some!
12/3 GMT 20.26 Lack of Site Updates
The site will be up and running as per usual during the weekend. Had a bit of a Holiday... Thanks for checking in!
3/3 GMT 02.50 Central Banks - Australia RBA
Leaves the cash rate unchanged for some obscure reason not apparent to anyone outside the cave the RBA lives in...
3/3 GMT 00.26 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent
Peruse the numbers as far as demand is concerned, and do it with a serious intent.
2/3 GMT 23.00 The Market - Cash is King!
I have been harping on about this kind of market since early last year... The stimulus packages are just window dressing and
political fluff paid for by the Tax Payer, screwed again.... Let the Bad Companies fall however large! Socialism does not work!!
So am I in this market? No! Cash is King...
25/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Very low refinery runs due to seasonal work-overs means a draw on Gasoline stocks, low imports for Crude also seeīs smaller than
expected stock builds. This will see a run up in the Crude contracts yet this looks set to be short term. Expiration on Friday
for WTI.
24/2 GMT 03.59 The Market
Are we finally starting to see the true bloodletting of the market? I belive so as this would mean that the time to sart getting
back in is in sight... Not here but in sight..
24/2 GMT 03.42 China - Crude Demand
China
2004 6.6 mmbopd
2005 6.4 mmbopd
2006 6.9 mmbopd
2007 7.5 mmbopd
2008 7.9 mmbopd
The preliminary demand numbers for China area as above for 2008. This then 0.1 mmbopd above the sites prognosis. There are some
questions as to the correctness of the numbers...
13/2 GMT 01.43 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
WTI ends the day at $33.98 down -5.5%, and it now looks like there will be a test of the $30 level, soon. Part due to technicals
but mainly due to the fact that the world is awash with oil and ever falling demand. Ofcourse this will correct itself but there are
few if any signs out there that this will happen anytime soon.
Graph up later.
11/2 GMT 15.28 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - One Quarterly Report closer to Bankruptcy!
Ulrik Jansson is Scandinavias best Used Car salesman, and as noted before a very competent accountant...
Dwindeling oil reserves, forget the gas numbers as they are just numbers with no consequence. Lower and lower production.
Look for "technical difficulties" to halt the start of Azurite. The Debt/Asset ratio is just getting worse... Etc, etc..
The company needs to issue a balance sheet for liquidation purposes, Yesterday.
In this I wrote,
27/11 GMT 08.35 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
I have never liked this company or the hype surrounding it. That they now are seeking to fleece share holders out of
another 25.000.000 shares is as I see it more of the same... The company has dwindeling resources and few new real plans
to actually do something about it. Please read the company reports, I mean really read them with a critical eye!
20/11 GMT 01.25 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX -
The company cuts itīs Capex for 2009 and now it wants more money from the market to finance past sins..? I would not be
surprised if this company seeīs bankruptcy within six months.. Where did all of the huge profits go?? This company is a
scam.. Look at the debt structure!
Stay Away from this Stock!!
Please see other earlier postings...
11/2 GMT 04.29 Oil - OPEC
Well as expected and which is also history when it comes to OPEC the agreed on cuts are not being followed.. Big Surprise!
Look for more cheating going forward as the Demand situation deteriorates further.
11/2 GMT 03.57 The Market
There are too many "Suckerīs Rallies" ongoing for this market to be interesting unless you know the stocks you follow very well
and are prepared to take the risk. Markets climbing on Tax Payers bailing out "Incompetent Bankers", what is that all about?
Especially as the line of bankers asking for handouts is just going to get longer...
Case in point - US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geitner says he will put 14 US banks under pressure, yet all of these banks
are too large to fail according to Timothy. So what is he going to do? Take away their parking privileges... Mad House!!
An old adage that has served me well is that - When you do not understand the market, Stay Out!
In this I wrote,
14/7 GMT 01.29 USA - Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac
Free Market Capitalism on Hold! Yet again the Government by way of The Fed ie Taxpayers are set to bail out
Incompetent Bankers. The Financial Sector goes through this every 8 to 12 years where Banks and Financial
Institutions get themselves into strife. Only to be saved ultimately by The Taxpayer.
6/2 GMT 03.20 Global Depression
As I have stated many times before, itīs out there lurking boyz and girlz and anyone in a position of power or influence
that has not seen this possibility coming should be sacked for gross incompetence...
I sadly know that the list of contestants in that race is long, very long....
6/2 GMT 03.01 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
The head of Kuwait's sovereign wealth fund on Thursday predicted oil prices will slide further in the next six months,
posing a big challenge to next year's budget. Sheikh Bader al-Saad, under whose leadership the Kuwait Investment Authority
invests the Gulf Arab country's windfall revenues at home and abroad, said the projected average price of WTI $35 per barrel,
on which the budget is based, is "reasonable in the light of global economic developments".
5/2 GMT 22.07 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V
An old favorite on this site that has seen better days but now things should get moving.
The Lundins have a plan. Now if you could only somehow put Sad and Sorry Sudan into AOI aswell.... Hey thereīs a thought!
4/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 7.2 mmbls (API + 8.1 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.3 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.4 mmbls (API - 0.2 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.4 mmbls
Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd + 0.3 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Refineries 83.5% + 1.0%
Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 0.5% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 3.7% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 13.1% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.5 mmbopd - 2.8% yoy
SPR build by 0.7 mmbls.. Yet more Crude in the US of A. The Demand numbers are contracting somewhat due to a natural period
of lower demand but as the "driving season" starts looming look for demand to fall further. Itīs all about the depth of
the soon to be called Global Depression...
2/2 GMT 04.26 Atlas Copco ATCO:SAX
As promised this company is on the watch list...
2/2 GMT 02.58 Australia - GDP Growth
The Australian economy is expected to shrink by - 0.2% during 2009.. Well are we all finally waking up to the reality of
the situation? GDP Growth will probably according to this site come in below - 2% for the year..
Hey we are all Global Now!
2/2 GMT 02.48 Central Banks - Australia RBA
Expected is a 1% rate cut, with more to come.
29/1 GMT 21.16 Oil - Super Contango - Continued
Shipping investor Nobu Su plans to offer his fleet of 20 supertankers to speculators who want to store oil and bet
they can sell it later in the year for a profit. Sus Taipei-based company, TMT & Co Ltd, will lease out its 2 mmbls
vessels at below-market prices in return for a share of any profit his customers make on the trade in oil.
His fleet, able to hold enough crude to supply Europe for two days, is available for immediate hire....
The plot thickens... The question is how many are going to risk getting burned a second time in less than a year.?
28/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 6.2 mmbls (API + 0.8 mmbls)
Gasoline - 0.1 mmbls (API + 0.95 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.0 mmbls (API - 0.35 mmbls)
Natural Gas - 186 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.6 mmbls
Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd + 0.0 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Refineries 82.5% - 0.8%
Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 1.7% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 3.0% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 10.4% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.4 mmbopd - 4.0% yoy
America's trend of declining driving started its second year with a loss of 12.9 billion vehicle-miles traveled (VMT),
or 5.3% less, in November 2008 compared to the same month in 2007. It is the largest such decline of any November
since monthly data estimates began in 1971.
28/1 GMT 14.54 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno 2
The company finds more oil and gets an indication of the extension of the Luno field, note here that I include all parts
of the Luno structure. Unfortunatlly the market and some analysts expect every drill to be a "gusher", the reality in
the oil business is far different and somber. It is positive that the company finds more oil and with three more drills
planned for 2009 things will become much clearer.
28/1 GMT 02.29 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno 2
I would put this one in the "Big Happy" department..
27/1 GMT 23.54 The Church of Peak Oil
I note with amusement that one of the Bishops of the Church has come to the surface with yet another prophecy...
Kjell Aleklett is a sad figure of a man who now belives that Peak Oil production occured in July of 2008.. And I thought
the doctine of the Church said 2005?? Oh well some revision is accepted in the faith I guess.. Apparently the world is
never again going to see demand that merits an oil price of $150 or above. This then the new revelation from Kjell..
The fact that world oil demand had very little if anything to do with the $147 level attained in 2008 driven by
speculation escapes Kjell. But to be politically correct Aleklett ofcourse points to electric cars as the saviours
own chariots.. Not a word about ethanol, by the way.... *G*
An interesting fact is that US crude oil proved reserves actually rose by 345 mmbls 2% in 2007...
27/1 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
The API stats are as follow,
Crude na (API + 0.8 mmbls)
Gasoline na (API + 0.95 mmbls)
Distillates na (API - 0.35 mmbls)
26/1 GMT 20.54 Oil - OPEC
It does seem that OPEC is living up to the quotas set for Q1, yet the longer the oil price stays low the harder it is
going to be for the members to comply with the cuts. The fact is that there is some "cheating" going on even today.
26/1 GMT 20.43 Oil - Super Contango
Contango is the norm for the market where the cost of storage is priced into the future price. But we are in a phase
of Super Contango where oil producers and the futures market are betting on a greater than normal upturn in the oil
price going forward. Every producer, refinery, storage company etc are storing "cheap" front month Crude with the view
to sell it at a higher price months down the line. Yet with dark prospects for the global economy becoming apparent for
even the slowest minds the gamble could backfire...
22/1 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 6.1 mmbls (API + 9.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 6.5 mmbls (API - 0.03 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.8 mmbls (API + 0.07 mmbls)
Natural Gas - 176 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories + 11.8 mmbls
Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd + 0.4 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.4 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Refineries 83.3% - 1.9%
Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 2.6% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 13.8% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.4 mmbopd - 4.7% yoy
The lower refinery numbers give the larger than expected build in Crude but also for Gasoline the Import increase is
a factor. Build at Cushing and injection into the SPRīs. With Total Petroleum demand down by almost 5% itīs all about
Demand. Simple as that!
22/1 GMT 10.45 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at GMT 16.00
Again I expect,
a further build across the board..
Crude + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.2 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Natural Gas - 149 Bcf
With demand falling and lotīs of "cheap" barrels of oil being stored for better "price" times the pressure on the
contracts minus the US$ effect continous.
22/1 GMT 05.25 China - Q4 GDP Growth
As expected GDP Growth is falling and Q4 saw a growth of 6.8%. If the Communist States numbers are to be belived and
again I feel they are "sweetened" still.
20/1 GMT 10.31 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
Expiration date for the CLG9 contracts today so look for a test of the $30 level, could even brake it into the $20īs.
CLH9 is trading just below $40 and as the day progresses the price level should settle in the mid $30īs.
Brent due to itīs larger trading area is still beating the WTI spread by around $10.
Site Updates
Lack of Updates to the Site, due again to Travel.
15/12 GMT 05.54 Central Banks - EU ECB
A 50 basis point cut would be just ordinary. I would look for a 100 basis point cut to actually do some good.
Especially as the ECB has been up the creek without a paddle in calling the future...
14/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 1.2 mmbls (API + 0.65 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.1 mmbls (API + 3.6 mmbls)
Distillates + 6.4 mmbls (API + 0.4 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.2 mmbls
Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd - 0.8 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Refineries 85.2% + 0.6%
Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 2.4% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 11.0% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.7 mmbopd - 4.0% yoy
14/1 GMT 05.32 China - Crude Demand
China
2004 6.6 mmbopd
2005 6.4 mmbopd
2006 6.9 mmbopd
2007 7.5 mmbopd
2008 7.8 mmbopd (this sites prognosis)
As I have pointed to before 14/10 and much earlier, Chinas demand for Crude is falling/faltering and it probably will
come in at below 7.6 mmbopd for 2008. Media for some obscure reason only publishes the Crude Import numbers and the
latest estimate was that the Imports grew by 9%... Well not surprising as Chinas domestic crude production is falling,
much due to problems with infrastructure and lack of foreign investment. Chinas dependence on Crude Imports rose above
50% for the first time in December of 2008, therefore the Import numbers are rising...
Crude Imports have gone from 34% in 2003 to 50% of total demand in 2008.
14/1 GMT 00.13 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,
a further build across the board..
Crude + 3.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Note that the API are changing the report day to 21.30 GMT Tuesdays as per 27/1...
13/1 GMT 04.33 China
The Q4 GDP numbers and the 2008 numbers are not going to be pretty, as I have stated. Things are getting worse and the
Q1 2009 stats will put China in a worse place... Factory closings and increasing unemployment for a work force that have
become used to at least "two meals" a day...
13/1 GMT 04.27 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
I would look for a move back into the $0.50 to $0.60 level in tune with the move down from the May 2008 top..
13/12 GMT 03.41 Free Market Capitalism
Australia has been named the world's third freest economy by American think tank the Heritage Foundation, behind Asian
City/States Hong Kong and Singapore. North Korea and Zimbabwe came in at the bottom of the rankings.
The annual index, which measures a jurisdiction's commitment to free market capitalism, placed Hong Kong atop a list
of 179 economies for the 15th year in a row. Hong Kong's Asian rival Singapore was again ranked second, followed by
Australia, Ireland and New Zealand, according to the pro-free market group. Sweden come in at number 26...
12/12 GMT 02.27 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno 2
A bit of old news yet there you are.. With testing to get underway, itīs just a question of how much oil... With
the most important part of this drill ie a further part in establishing a reserve number for the field.. In this
Luno is estimated to be a + 500 mmbls field, at least..
11/1 GMT 04.26 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria
Again a worthy repost...
Especially as the Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "patients" are running the asylum..
"Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern
ice cap. Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming
experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes
in planetary climates could be a natural phenomena.".....
11/1 GMT 04.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
Russia and the Ukraine with help from the Czechoslovakian Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek have it seems come to an
accord over the "Gas Delivery" problem. Look for the contracts to reflect this along side with the "grim" outlook for
the US economy going forward as painted by Barack Obama. Again nothing new to readers of this site...
9/1 GMT 04.14 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX
Impressive up-tick for this one, easy money... For sure the management reshuffle after the
Blackrock deal is a driver, yet.. A warning.
8/1 GMT 06.19 Vostok Gas - VGAS SDB:SAX
The Market quickly consumes those who do not know better!..
8/1 GMT 05.47 Oil - The Contracts - WTI
The trend...
7/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Crude + 6.7 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.3 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Natural Gas - 147 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.7 mmbls
Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd + 1.3 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd + 0.15 mmbopd
Refineries 84.6% + 2.1%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 0.3% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 9.1% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 20.1 mmbopd - 2.9% yoy
Note the first positive Demand numbers for Distillates since.. a very long time. No build yet in the SPRīs...
So despite problems in the shipping channel leading to LOOP the Import numbers for Crude rose, next week will see this
effect. On the whole a Bearish Report.
4/1 GMT 02.59 IRAQ - Western Desert - Just a Reminder!
I wrote in 2007,
20/2 GMT 00.19 IRAQ - Western Desert
I wrote in 2005,
20/7 2005 IRAQ - Western Desert
There are interesting "Oil Fields" in Iraqīs Western Desert....."
As expected there are interesting things in Western Iraq close to Syria..
19/2 2007 In a remote patch of the Anbar desert just 20 miles from the Syrian border, a single blue
pillar of flanges and valves sits atop an enormous deposit of oil and natural gas that would be routine in this
petroleum-rich country except for one fact: This is Sunni territory.
Huge petroleum deposits have long been known in Iraq's Kurdish north and Shiite south. But now, Iraq has substantially
increased its estimates of the amount of oil and natural gas in deposits on Sunni lands after quietly paying foreign oil
companies tens of millions of dollars over the past two years to re-examine old seismic data across the country and
retrain Iraqi petroleum engineers....
4/1 GMT 10.51 Oil - Iran
Iran has set itīs national budget based on a oil price of $37.50 for 2009. Note that the budget base for 2008 was
$55. Oman has set a budget base of $45 for 2009.
2/1 GMT 02.28 Oil - The Contracts
Donīt look for the contracts to follow the 14% upturn before New Years... Russias paranoid view of how to behave in a
civilized world drove the futures as did still the OPEC cuts, that were agreed on more than a week ago!?
Anyway in the real world demand for Oil is still falling and will do so for a long time. As I said before when the
Smart Money returns to the trading floor Crude will continue its trend...
Spud!..